The opposition’s waning fortunes
Ryder Gabathuse | Monday September 25, 2023 06:00
Just for the background, outside the umbrella arrangement, one of the political parties touted to be focused, stable and very strong as a single entity, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) has also witnessed bitter factionalism tearing it asunder.
The party's factions have been at each other’s throats forcing it to spend endless time frequenting courts to settle elusive internal squabbles. It does not seem the BPF bitter infighting is going to subside anytime soon as now the party has two powerful centres of power, one led by the party’s former president Biggie Butale who still recognises himself as the party president and the recently elected party president Mephato Reatile who is in charge of another party faction. With all the factional fights tearing the opposition apart, will they really catch up with the ruling BDP, which has lately been containing its differences although it has a fair share of its trouble? The developments in the opposition bloc have left the ruling BDP bragging that there is still no alternative party to oust it.
Mmegi: My question is, don’t you think as we go into the 2024 General Election, the strength and threat posed by the opposition under the ambit of the UDC in the 2019 polls will diametrically be altered going into the 2024 General Election possibly by today’s dynamics of a disunited opposition?
Mfundisi: The 2019 General Election was an eye-opener on how collective narcissism can endanger democratic principles and values and thereby engenders politics of extreme partisanship and polarisation of society. Competitive authoritarianism dominated the polls where the BDP and its government employed strategies to preserve the political status quo by undermining free, fair and democratic elections. The ruling BDP unashamedly violated conventional minimum standards of democratic polity by skewing the political playing field to favour itself.
Even the SADC protocols and principles covering the administration of democratic, fair, free, credible, accountable and verifiable elections were ignored. The misuse and abuse of State power by the BDP was legendary in that it was perpetuated with immunity and impunity. State resources, institutions, processes, and personnel were mobilised to campaign for the BDP.
Overt and covert tactics were employed to intimidate, coerce, and profile opposition leaders and supporters. The government media, contrary to SADC principles on democratic, fair and free elections, became the propaganda machinery of the BDP. The ruling party had a lion's share of the coverage, sometimes under the pretext of covering the State President who is the head of the government and the BDP. Opposition leaders were not offered fair coverage on the government media. Whatever coverage the opposition enjoys from the government media contains unimportant issues and misrepresented to put it in bad light in the eyes of the voters.
Worse, in the 2019 General Election, even some private media was turned into a BDP propaganda tool. The pliant or cowed private media abandoned journalistic principles and values of ethics, objectivity, fairness, inclusivity, and accountability. Some displayed tabloid behaviour as well as instruments of fake news. The BDP enjoyed unfettered support from both the government and private media to the detriment of democratic consolidation.
Mmegi: Post 2019 General Election, there has not been peace generally in the opposition bloc as we saw the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), one of the crucial partners in the coalition project choosing to leave the umbrella citing governance issues.
Mfundisi: The UDC failed to wrestle power from the BDP in the 2014 and 2019 polls. The political narrative in the former polls was that the BCP sold the nation to the BDP.
In the latter polls, the BCP became a member of the UDC, but still the coalition formation failed to win the polls. Political analysts and the media have not thoroughly interrogated the various factors, which deprived the UDC to win the 2019 General Election despite the inclusion of the BCP, which was absent in the 2014 polls. As a nation, we should not assume that the BDP could only be defeated in elections through a combined opposition establishment or formation.
The BDP is a quasi-authoritarian regime preaching democracy but applying undemocratic practices to undermine a free and fair electoral process. Electoral fraud and rigging have become the key instruments by which the BDP wins elections. Elections are sometimes won before the polling day. Pre-elections processes influence the final outcomes of the polls. The BDP determines the electoral processes and administration thereby pre-determining the electoral outcomes.
For example, the BDP determined the additional constitutional boundaries without any data and information on the matter. In addition, the BDP government through the President appointed the Delimitation Commission to demarcate pre-determined constituencies by the incumbent party. It is common cause that the BDP appoints its supporters, loyalists, apologists, to do the political bidding including gerrymandering of electoral boundaries to favour itself and its candidates. Moreover, the BDP authoritarian government controls the IEC through various mechanisms including the appointment of Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) top brass as well as commissioners.
The President of Botswana, who doubles as the president of the BDP, is constitutionally and legally empowered to appoint the IEC secretary and the Board, solo. Conflicts of interest pollute the whole process of democratic elections. The registration process is another avenue where the ruling party influences the elections outcomes in that employment of registration officers is executed by a BDP dominated IEC. The majority of presiding officers are political appointees of the President, namely District Commissioners (DC) who owe their allegiance to the President not the people. They have been instrumental in executing electoral fraud and rigging to favour the BDP.
Take an example of the Gantsi DC who it is alleged kept election materials including ballot boxes in his or her toilet and when exposed through a whistleblower, the State fired the person who blew the whistle and exposed political malice. My argument is that it does not matter whether there is a coalition of political parties or not, the BDP controls all commanding heights of the electoral regime. There are irrefutable facts to buttress the arguments posited thereof. The absence of State funding of political parties with the exception of the BDP, renders a free and fair election a myth rather than a reality. Overt and covert funding of the ruling party is in the public realm.
The deep State has been unleashed against opposition parties and members by security and non-security agencies including the Directorate of Intelligence and Security (DIS), the Botswana Police Service (BPS), the Botswana Unified Revenue Service (BURS) and the Civil Aviation Authority of Botswana (CAAB). We should not forget the President’s use of the sacred public forum (Kgotla system) to campaign for the BDP under the guise of national consultation.
Mmegi: Another strong opposition party, the BPF, which contested the 2019 General Election as a single entity and made several assists in the Central District, is currently undergoing a stressful moment with two of its powerful factions at each other’s throats. How do you think this is going to possibly affect the strength of the BPF as we go into the 2024 polls?
Mfundisi: In my considered view, the wrangling and conflict in the BPF will be resolved as we approach the 2024 General Election. Every political party in Botswana has had trials and tribulations in their growth and development. Factionalism mushrooms where there are weak political structures and leadership. The BPF is relatively strong in the CDC, in particular Serowe and its environs. It has been able to withstand the BDP onslaught despite the self-exile of its patron and funder, Ian Khama. Therefore, it will outlive its troubles and join the UDC to consolidate its dominance in the Serowe heartland. If by any chance, Khama jets into the country, the political situation would change drastically in favour of the BPF and the UDC by association. Khama is a political giant in the Botswana's political landscape. All in all, the BPF is the brainchild of Khama and his tribesmen and women and therefore, they are unshaken by the BDP onslaught.
Mmegi: It may be too early to conclude, but on the surface of it, would you still maintain that coalition politics really has a place in our local politics?
Mfundisi: Coalition politics is a new phenomenon in Botswana and Southern Africa. This does not necessarily mean one opposition party representing all political formations. Botswana is a multiparty democracy, which allows multiplicity of political parties pursuing varied socio-economic, political and ideological persuasions. Coalition of political parties must be anchored on shared values, principles and ideologies. Therefore, coalitions premised on convenience rather than development, fail to deliver promises made. Coalition politics should be based on good governance including ethics, transparency, democracy, accountability, and competitive environment.
Mmegi: Since 1965, the opposition has been trying very hard to unseat the government of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) without success. Do the opposition parties really have the wherewithal to unseat the BDP?
Mfundisi: The BDP is a competitive authoritarian political party bent on holding regular elections that do not deliver free and fair elections. It has flouted democratic principles, values, and norms since 1966 to maintain political power. The BDP electoral dominance does not necessarily reflect its popularity but political manipulation of the Constitution and electoral processes and administration. Elections are used as a smokescreen to legitimise its grip on power. The BDP has been employing State infrastructure to coerce voters to keep it in power. The First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system or winner takes it all, encourages electoral fraud and rigging. We need reforms on the electoral legislation to combine both FPTP and proportional representation. The BDP maintains a tight grip on the judiciary, the media, and the IEC in order to stay in power. State-BDP patronage has become extensive, as patronage networks have expanded throughout the socio-economic and political space. A competitive, free, fair, credible, verifiable, democratic, ethnical, and accountable electoral process is the only viable avenue to challenge the BDP dominance and hegemony. Political parties and civil society organisations must rise up and demand free and fair elections for Botswana. Political socialisation through family, schools, work, friendship, community organisations, religious fraternity and the media must be invigorated to promote political activism.
The youth, the poor, unemployment and underemployed must rise up and influence the election outcomes to respond to their needs, interests, aspirations, and priorities. All in all, the IEC, government, political parties, civil society, the media and others must carry out civic and political education. The social media platforms are potential avenues to massively contribute to political socialisation amidst biased mass media in Botswana. The BDP is neither omnipotent nor omniscience and therefore, is vulnerable to defeat in a free and fair electoral regime.