Islamic State-linked insurgents in Mozambique’s troubled Cabo Delgado province, have ramped up their deadly assaults in recent weeks, with reports of significant military and civilian deaths, including beheadings.
A prolonged lull in attacks stretching from last year, had convinced SAMIM, SADC’s military deployment to the province, to exit by July, where control would be handed over to the Mozambican authorities.
Botswana dispatched 300 soldiers under SAMIM to Cabo Delgado in July 2021, helping the regional force crush a terrorist insurgency that by that time had seen more than 3,000 people killed, with reports of beheadings, disembowelling of expectant mothers and other brutalities.
Ahead of the exit, SAMIM has reportedly been winding down its activities, and the region is now focussing more of its attention on the escalating conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
More violence
Insurgents in Cabo Delgado have however stepped up their attacks and on Wednesday, Reuters, quoting a senior government official, reported that more than 67,000 people have fled attacks in recent weeks.
“Only two months into the year and we’ve already had more than half the number of attacks we had for the whole of last year,” Reuters quoted Focus Group head analyst, Tertius Jacobs as saying on Wednesday.
Other conflict monitors in the province also confirmed the escalating violence.
“The last two weeks have seen a massive escalation in insurgent violence in Cabo Delgado province, with attacks spread across the districts of Chiure in the south, Macomia, Meluco, and Quissanga in the province’s centre, and Mocímoba da Praia in the north,” reads the latest edition of a weekly security bulletin issued by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).
“Insurgents targeted security forces and civilians, and made an unprecedented effort to burn down churches.”
ACLED’s report also notes that the insurgents claimed to have killed 25 people, including 23 members of the military, in an attack on February. If true, that incident would be the worst single attack on the military in Cabo Delgado since the Parma assault of February 2021 that triggered SAMIM’s deployment.
Piers Pigou, head of the Southern Africa programme at the Institute for Security Studies, says the regional force has scored some successes in the two and a half years it has been in Cabo Delgado.
SAMIM is fighting the insurgents alongside the Rwanda Security Forces (RSF) and the national army of Mozambique (FADM).
“Our sense from what we have seen in the last two and half years, is that insurgents’ capacity has been greatly degraded but there are a number of them operating in North and Eastern Macomia,” Pigou told Mmegi by telephone.
“The insurgents have shown an ability to ambush, push and attack and this has been ramped up in recent weeks.”
While the leading narrative in Maputo is one of the insurgents “being on the run” and the Mozambican army being largely capable of taking over when the regional forces pull out, the latest uptick in violence is a reality check into a volatile situation.
President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who as SADC’s politics, defence and security chair in 2021, led the deployment into Cabo Delgado, visited the Botswana Defence Force (BDF) in Pemba, Cabo Delgado’s capital where he said Mozambique had built up the capacity to defeat the insurgents.
SADC last year moved to Scenario 5 engagement in Cabo Delgado, shifting from “peace enforcement” to “peacekeeping” after an assessment showed a de-escalation in violence. The de-escalated engagement in parts of the troubled province, meant a civilian component, humanitarian, police and other actors could be brought into play. Masisi and other SADC leaders later confirmed the plan to exit in July.
Pigou said the decision was not the best.
“I would argue that it’s premature to talk about drawing down,” he told Mmegi.
“The combined forces of Rwanda, Mozambique and SAMIM have still not be able to crush this beast.
“Many insurgencies deflate and reflate and they have time on their side.”
He added: “They can pack away their guns for a year or so and work on radicalisation and recommitment initiatives.
“They have all the time in the world.”
Troubled days
SAMIM’s tenure in Cabo Delgado had a troubled start, being mired in political wrangling and confusion.
Back in 2021 Mozambique appeared hesitant to invite the regional group onto its soils and in fact, sealed a bilateral deal that meant Rwanda went in ahead of SAMIM.
At one point, SADC was ready to deploy but was delayed by Mozambique’s apparent reluctance to issue a Status of Forces Agreement which would allow regional boots on the ground in Cabo Delgado. By comparison, Mozambique fast-tracked Rwanda’s deployment into the province, allegedly without informing the region.
“You have more control over a situation from a bilateral point of view than from a multilateral agreement,” explained Piers.
“The multilateral route has more eyes on it, while the bilateral is more secretive and could have provided Mozambique with more operational manoeuvrability than SAMIM which is more straight-jacketed.”
Despite the initial hesitance, SAMIM gradually pushed back against the insurgents, proving militarily more efficient than the other forces in the battlefield.
“In terms of incompetency, everyone points to the Rwandans as the gold standard, than SAMIM,” Pigou said.
Analysts at ACLED believe the upsurge in violence in eastern DRC has captured the region’s attention and its military resources, coinciding with and also necessitating the drawdown in Cabo Delgado.
South Africa and Tanzania, two of SAMIM’s contributing countries, have deployed troops to the DRC as well.
“The DRC deployment greatly stretches the resources of the South Africa National Defence Force. “The South African contingent to the DRC is almost 3,000 troops, double the contingent deployed with SAMIM, from which South Africa has reportedly already withdrawn half of its deployed special forces,” ACLED researchers said.
Exit or not?
For Pigou, besides the previous lull in attacks, there are other reasons why SADC leaders are leaning towards exiting Cabo Delgado.
“The impression we get is that there’s a political appetite to leave and that may be about the costs of the war or the argument that there has been remarkable efforts on the ground.
“That’s not unusual because there’s a fear that you can get stuck in these places if you stay there too long,” he said.
From his reluctance to let the region in, Mozambican leader, Filipe Nyusi, is reported to have recently shared with Zimbabwean president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, some misgivings about SAMIM’s exit, saying the withdrawal was “coming before the situation in Cabo Delgado had been calmed”.
Reports from Mozambique suggest that with the latest upsurge, SADC leaders could be refining what their drawdown and exit looks like.
In fact, ACLED reports that Portugal-based publication, Africa Monitor, says SADC is considering retaining a presence in Pemba as a base for offensive operations while withdrawing its presence from districts elsewhere in Cabo Delgado.
The troops fighting for regional stability could find their stay extended a little longer, albeit with different roles and a reduced contingent.
