The journey continues for the Zebras

The Zebras have just come back from Mozambique where they recorded a much-needed victory against the Mambas. The 2-1 win came after the sacking of coach Colwyn Rowe, who has been with the team since 2006.

It is no doubt that on paper, Zebras' opponents, the Elephants of Ivory Coast are favourites to win tomorrow. However, the west Africans are missing a number of key players besides the fact that they are struggling in the qualifiers. They have scored only one goal in the win against Mozambique at home and drawn 0-0 with Madagascar away in Antananarivo. The Elephants might be a struggling and weakened side but this can work negatively for the Zebras. It is not in doubt that the 1992 African champions want to beat the Zebras comprehensively to put their campaign on a firm footing. This means that the Zebras who are surprisingly sitting top of Group Seven ahead of the Ivorians are in for a tough time. However, the Zebras can take solace that in recent years, they have stood firm against big names like Egypt and Morocco. The same is expected against the Elephants.

The Elephants are under pressure and if they are to lose this one, they will be in deep trouble and may find it hard to go back home. A loss for the Ivorians means that the Zebras will open at least at two point lead in the group. This should be handy, especially in the bid to qualify for the African Cup of Nations for the first time. So far, this dream looks very achievable at this stage. In fact the concentration should be qualifying for the African Cup of Nations. The World Cup will come at a later stage after the Zebras have tasted competition at the highest level in Africa. The plan should be that the Zebras should participate at the AFCON twice before they venture into the world stage. Participating at the AFCON will give the players enough experience and hunger to compete at the world stage.

This is what they should do. The Zebras must top their group and be among the 12 winners to make it to the second round of the qualifiers. If this is not achieved, they should at the least be second and be among the best eight teams. They can only be among the best eight if they minimize damage in the games that they lose. Losing by big margins will be a great disadvantage. So far it has been good.

Once they are among the 20 teams, they will be drawn in a group of four where now they will be fighting to qualify for both the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and 2010 AFCON in Angola. There will be five groups in all. The winners of the group will qualify for the World Cup while the top three teams in each group will qualify for Angola 2010. The Zebras have all the chance to go to Angola. If they miss this opportunity, they may never get it again. Who knows they might be drawn in a very tough group in the next qualifiers.

The greatest beneficiaries will be the teams that will be drawn in the same group with Angola. Since Angola is not taking part in the AFCON qualifiers by virtue of being hosts but the 2010 World Cup, the other three teams will automatically qualify for the finals. FIFA and CAF have outlined three criteria that will be followed in relation to the teams being drawn in the five groups. The 20 remaining sides from the on-going pre-qualifications games, will be split into five groups of four using the following three criteria:

*The number of points obtained during the group matches of the first round. Most teams will play six matches in this round, with a maximum of 18 points available. While no official decision has been communicated on the impact of the withdrawal of Eritrea from Group 11, and how the teams that advance from this group (who will only play 4 matches for a maximum of 12 points possible) will be assessed on this criteria, media releases from CAF suggest that the first three matches in the group (2 for each nation) will count twice for the purposes of comparison.

*The teams that competed at the 2008 Africa Cup of Nations will be classified from 1 to 16 by their finishing position. The Africa Champion will get 16 points, the runner-up 15 and the team coming at the third place 14 and finally the team coming at the last place will get only one point. Any teams that qualify for the second round but did not qualify for the finals of the 2008 Africa Cup of Nations will each receive one point.

*The 20 teams that qualify for the second round will be classified from 1 to 20 in order of their last FIFA ranking before the date scheduled for the second round draw. The top team will be allocated 20 points, the second 19 points and the team coming in 20th place will get one point.

The points attained through each of the above criteria will be added together, and the teams will be ranked according to their points. The first five teams will be placed in Pot 1, the teams from six to 10 in Pot 2, the teams from 11 to 15 in Pot 3 and the teams from 16 to 20 in Pot 4.

In the last qualification for Ghana 2008 AFCON, it was highly expected that Botswana will qualify for the African spectacle. The argument was based on the fact that the Zebras were seen to have been drawn against weaker teams in Burundi and Mauritania. These two are unknowns in African football. On paper the Zebras should have easily to dispose of the duo, home and away. But it was never the case. Mauritania gave the Zebras a rude awakening, a 4-0 drubbing in first game, in Mauritania, against many expectations. Many people still feel the campaign for Ghana 2008 was lost here.

Another draw back was when Burundi beat the Zebras away (in Rwanda) 1-0. Egypt was always going to be the difficult customer in the group but the Zebras stood their ground in Gaborone and held the Carthage Eagles to a goalless draw. Egypt beat the Zebras 1-0 in Cairo. It was a hard fought battle. If the Zebras carry this spirit into the on-going qualifiers, then Angola 2010 is a stone throw away.