Storm not over at Bophirima ward
Mompati Tlhankane | Monday March 14, 2022 06:00
The upcoming by-election will determine whether the opposition supporters especially the Botswana National Front (BNF) members have accepted the decision. “The just concluded meeting involving BNF and UDC leader Duma Boko and Alliance For Progressives (AP) leader Ndaba Gaolatlhe and Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) acting leader Veronica Lesole has decreed that the contentious Bophirima Ward be awarded to BCP of the UDC thus rendering the ever compromising and unrelenting Mogapi the opposition collective candidate.
The Botswana Congress Party Youth League (BCPYL) fully welcomes the decision and pays gratitude to the joint presidents,” BCPYL spokesperson Ishmael Jackson Koko announced in a statement this week. Before this decision, BCPYL has been publicly endorsing Mogapi, as its preferred choice and right candidate for Bophirima ward despite the BNF and AP also eyeing the ward. “We further pay homage to the BPF and AP leaders who cogently noticed that there existed a binding 2019 agreement which favoured the BCP and also appreciated the glaring fact that BCP has been compromising in the previous by-elections and the spirit of coalition compelled that other parties compromised for the BCP as well. Such political maturity and equity is required for the coalition to strengthen,” added Koko. Despite BCP smiling the last, this issue of coalition members fighting each other instead of fighting together may even reach boiling point when talks of constituency allocations begin.
It is already clear that UDC coalition members being BNF, BCP and Botswana People’s Party (BPP) are all eyeing certain key constituencies but whether they will crumble after the talks or fall flat at the ballot box depends solely on them. The indecision over the attractiveness of potential candidates is making it harder for the leaders to judge who would be the best-placed candidate. The candidate who would draw the most voters is uncertain and that is what causes more headaches in the UDC.
Meanwhile, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is aiming to capitalise on the opposition fumbles especially after losing majority of wards to the latter in the recent by-elections. The ruling party could exploit divisions within the coalition to undercut its majority and retain power. Now that the main hurdle at which most opposition coalitions fall is in picking candidates, the constituency allocation talks are also expected to take even longer than the Bophirima ward. “We are disappointed with the protracted nature which wards/constituency disputes are resolved. It is self-defeating to take two months fighting over a ward only to resolve it three weeks before polling day.
That erodes voter confidence, gives impetus to opponents and paints a picture of disunity within the coalition. Moving forward, a more prompt solution must be devised to arrest such situations,” Koko highlighted.
The fact that the opposition coalition is inviting more members such as the BPF and AP into the UDC has gained growing traction. But as impressive as that coalition might be, there will always be those members with their own ambitions and goals, and alliances frequently collapse as a result of vested interests at party echelons. The big brother mentality often used by some parties like have been proven not to work in these situations because even recently formed parties do have their own ambitions and cannot afford to be pushed down the pecking order under a coalition.
Political experts have often advised that in order to remove the BDP from power, the UDC coalition should set aside its differences, agree on these constituencies and start campaigning for the 2024 general elections.
The recent UDC by-election victories in majority of the wards should have opened its eyes wider and recognise these triumphs as an opportunity to reverse democratic backsliding. The coalition in its nature brings together many faces and politicians who have various electoral supports. As in Bophirima Ward, these different politicians competing for the same seats within the UDC were bound to be followed by internal resistance. Whether or not the decision to award BCP the Bophirima Ward will shake the internal resistance will be seen in a few weeks. Cracks might start showing then and if so, it is up to leadership to prevent the whole house from crumbling down.
The constituency issue is a critical decision the UDC has to take before disagreements break apart the alliance. How will the constituency candidate be picked, based on what calculations and agreements? And how will those less pleased by the choice react? These are the questions lingering among opposition members but strategic thinking is what might be solution to all of this. The storm is not over.