The intricacies of coalition politics
Ryder Gabathuse | Monday August 1, 2022 06:00
Watching from the social media platforms as articulated by one political commentator, “is a poisonous political diatribe and avalanche of bitter exchanges”.
There is literally war in the opposition bloc, a development that has already left the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) shouting its tagline, louder: “There is still no alternative!”
For the first time, the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), which has long been considered peaceful and stable, has now suffered a major split since its formation in 1998 as five legislators fell out with their leadership under the presidency of Dumelang Saleshando as they could not agree on their allegiance to the UDC.
The UDC president Duma Boko has on the other hand suspended both the BCP president Saleshando and the BCP secretary-general Goretetse Kekgonegile from the UDC. Saleshando also lost the position of Leader of Opposition in Parliament to his party junior, Dithapelo Keorapetse.
Even with blood flowing on the opposition floors, the University of Botswana (UB) lecturer in politics and administrative studies, Adam Mfundisi sees hope for the coalition partners of the BCP, the Botswana National Front (BNF) and the Botswana People’s Party (BPP).
It is, however, interesting that from its conference held a fortnight ago in Mahalapye, after incessantly raising red flags centred around the issue of internal democracy, the BCP has given the UDC six months to put its house in order, failing which they will bolt out.
The party contends that if nothing improves, they are ready to bolt out and pursue other political interests like they always say, settling with like-minded organisations. That is notwithstanding the unfortunate reality that the floor-crossing law prohibits them from simply leaving the UDC, as it will attract a by-election, which might hurt them.
It is Mfundisi’s considered view that Botswana can have a viable and resilient coalition of like-minded political parties.
He is adamant that coalition politics require strategic leadership determined against all odds to unite opposition forces to defeat the ruling BDP. “Now, more than two coalition formations are possible and can deliver change of government,” the UB lecturer told Mmegi this week.
It would seem the Alliance for Progressives (AP) and the BCP have jelled together strongly to pursue another coalition formation other than the UDC. And it would be apparent for the BPP and the BNF are also compatible with each other to strengthen the UDC formation.
For starters, the BCP is a splinter party from the BNF and the acrimonious relationship between the two has not been resolved.
At its genesis, the UDC was formed without the BCP and the BNF assumed indomitable position in the coalition. And it would seem the leadership of the UDC is one factor that creates acrimony between the two major parties.
Moreover, the performance of the BCP in UDC exacerbated the internal strife within the UDC as the BCP, it is alleged, wanted to take over the leadership because of its ‘sterling performance’ in the 2019 general polls.
Coalition formations face daunting tasks of having sustainable partnership because of political control. Multiplicity of political parties in a coalition creates problems. Coalitions succeed if there are higher chances of winning at the polls and attract defectors from the incumbent political party.
Polarisation of the political landscape contributes to failure of political coalitions. For instance, the BCP and the BNF are polarised at the top as well as among the rank and file members.
The leadership, in addition, also engage in public spats bringing the UDC into disrepute. Contest for the leadership of the UDC contributes to instability within the coalition. The BNF dominates the UDC and the BCP is challenging that natural leadership of the coalition by the former. The dismal performance of the BNF of the UDC in the 2019 general election emboldened the BCP to challenge for the political leadership of the coalition.
“The BCP leaders who defected to the UDC made it difficult for the BCP and BNF to work harmoniously together. They tend to side with the BNF in any disagreement between the BCP and the BNF. And the five ‘renegade’ members of Parliament who were fired from the party have landed another obstacle to a cordial working relationship between the two dominant parties in the UDC.
The fired BCP legislators are Keorapetse, Kenny Kapinga, Never Tshabang, Onneetse Ramogapi, and David Tshere after falling out with the party for allegedly failing to obey the party instructions.
The AP is also bringing trouble in the coalition politics. It seems to be in a working relationship with the BCP. “All political parties making up the UDC have a part in the troubles brewing at the coalition formation. The top brass of all parties represented at the UDC have failed the opposition masses that want a united front to face the BDP. Lack of strategic political leadership has contributed to the instability in the UDC,” Mfundisi noted.
He is also of the idea that the BCP was not sincerely welcomed in the UDC and some BCP supporters had reservations about the coalition politics.
Opposition should have selfless leaders devoid of politics of personalities. The cult of leadership is eating the UDC away. The UDC therefore, needs strategic leadership imbued with emotional intelligence.
It should promote exchange of information, experience, skills, opportunities, and resources for collaboration. High political polarisation contributes to instability in opposition politics. The BCP and the BNF are the main culprits in these political struggles and disunity within the opposition forces.
Political diversity should be viewed as a value not vice versa in opposition politics. It is capable of appealing to a wider political audience with different priorities and interests.
The political analyst challenged the UDC leadership to develop clear objectives to bind them together in a united front. There must be equitable benefits to all parties in the coalition and added that the leaders must compromise, negotiate, agree to disagree, trust and respect each other.
Mfundisi insists the UDC must develop conflict resolution mechanisms for timely interventions in the event of disagreements or conflict. He added that the NEC of the UDC must meet frequently and deal with burning issues within the formation. Professor Zibani Maundeni, another political analyst, holds the view that Botswana has not generated sufficient conditions for the establishment of election winning coalitions.
This is contained in his research paper entitled ‘Political Instability, Electoral Violence and Coalition Governments in Africa: The Basis for Successful Liberal Politics and the Failure of Coalitions in Botswana’.
Maundeni said attempts by opposition parties to institutionalise their own cooperation through coalitions for winning elections have been problematic with visible and costly failures.
The paper focused on a case study on democratic Botswana. “Therefore, localised and without clear historical precedence in Africa, Botswana parties’ attempted coalitions for winning elections are having a hard time to take root and function.
Coalitions between Botswana opposition political parties have also been attempted but either collapsed or failed to win elections,” Maundeni said. Without being specific to the UDC case, Maundeni observed that the problem with the coalition is that opposition parties negotiating election-winning coalitions have based them on secrecy, elite orientation and disregard for the voting public.
He said Batswana prefer a coalition of opposition parties for purposes of winning elections but yet secrecy has always worked in favour of opposed internal elements to disrupt working together.
This expert view confirms the struggle opposition parties have been facing over the years, which has been exacerbated by mistrusts that continue to dog the opposition. At one stage or another, the current parties holding talks had worked together and left scars, which will continue to haunt them.
Nicole Beardsworth an honorary research fellow in Political and International Studies (PAIS) at the university of Warwick (UK) and a lecturer in politics at the University of the Witwatersrand, has written a paper on the pros and cons of coalitions in South Africa. Her paper also looked at why opposition coalitions succeed or fail.
In her paper, she highlighted that the main hurdle at which most opposition coalitions fall is in picking its leader. This contest, she says, is often keenly fought, particularly since the benefits of the presidency are so great in most African countries. The UDC should for the sake of cleaning its house pick good lessons raised by Beardsworth if it wants to remain on its feet as the people’s project.
Beardsworth says the decision of who should be the figurehead is least contentious when there are recent and reliable indicators of party strength, such as the results of parliamentary by-elections. With this data, the political analyst and academic added that it is more straightforward to work out which candidate has the most recognition and support.
However, the SA-based academic pointed out that this kind of information does not guarantee an easy process. In Zambia, for example, the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) won a series of unexpected by-elections victories between 2011 and 2016. Its candidate Hakainde Hichilema also garnered 46.7% of the vote in the 2015 presidential by-election, losing by just 27,000 votes.
“Nevertheless in 2016, when the UPND tried to form a coalition with opposition leader Edith Nawakwi – who got 0.9 percent in 2015 – Nawakwi insisted that she should lead the alliance. She said she had supported Hichilema in a 2006 coalition and that now it was his turn to support her. The parties went their separate ways,” she said.