The threat of Al-Shabaab

Solly Rakgomo | Monday August 22, 2022 06:00

Nnoli’s assertions are undoubtedly very true as violent extremism remains one of Africa’s most pressing security threats. Militant extremist group violence in Africa has risen inexorably over the past decade, expanding by 300% during this time.

Violent events linked to militant extremist groups have doubled since 2019. According to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, militant extremist violence in Africa is largely concentrated in five theatres, each comprising distinct locally based actors and context-specific challenges: the Sahel, Somalia, the Lake Chad Basin, North Africa, and Mozambique.

Employing asymmetric tactics and integrating within local communities, militant groups have sought to amplify grievances and inter-communal differences as a means of mobilising recruitment and fostering anti-government sentiments.

Among the five theatres mentioned above, Somalia continues to see a steady rise in violent extremist events and fatalities, increasing 11% over the past year. The record 2,221 violent events reported are a 45% increase from the three-year average from 2018-2020. Al-Shabaab was linked to 36% of all militant Islamist group violence recorded on the continent this past year.

According to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, much of the increase in violent events involving Al-Shabaab in recent years has been a result of a spike in battles involving state security forces. Battles account for 72% of all violent events involving Al -Shabaab in 2022 – more than any other militant Islamist group theatre on the continent. As a point of comparison, in 2019, battles represented 56% of all violent events involving Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab or ‘The Youth’, is a dangerous violent extremist group ever to emerge from Somalia.

It once held sway over the capital of Mogadishu and large portions of the Somali countryside, but in recent years an African Union (AU)-led military campaign has pushed it back from major population centres. However, the insurgency remains the principal security challenge in war-torn Somalia, and continues to mount lethal attacks against Western and AU forces and civilians in the region.

Somalia is one of the poorest countries on earth and over the years the country has seen different types of militant groups come and go during the many years of political instability that characterised the country.

Political observers state that Al-Shabaab’s origins can be traced to the post- Siad Barre era where the collapse of the central government led to complete anarchy, which left the citizens at the mercy of brutal warlords.

The anarchic political environment led to some concerned Islamic hardliners especially the religious elite to join forces and form an alliance of Sharia courts known as the Islamic Courts Union whose main task was to restore law and order especially around the capital Mogadishu. To ensure that their harsh judgements were implemented against marauding warlords, the Islamic Courts Union used the youth militias to carry out the judgements. Around 2006, these youths or Shabaab and the Islamic Courts Union succeeded in wrestling control of Mogadishu from the warlords and even extended their activities to other cities such as Kismayo.

The success of the Shabaab and the Islamic Courts Union stoked fears in the neighbouring Ethiopia of spillover Jihad violence. The George Bush Administration was also not happy as it viewed the rise in influence of the Islamic Court Union with the same lenses as the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan in the early 1990s. In addition, the leadership of the Transitional Government Somalia, which was utterly useless also felt paranoid that the Courts Union was hell-bent on undermining its authority.

This inherent fear by these actors led to the Transitional Government to request neighbouring Ethiopia to invade Somalia in 2006 to crush the Islamic Courts Union. Even though the Islamic Courts Union was crushed with little resistance, majority of the Al-Shabaab militias radicalised and regrouped in the Southern Somalia where they engaged in brutal guerrilla assaults that included bombings and assassinations on Ethiopian troops. It was during this period of resistance by the Shabaab that the group morphed into a full-fledged insurgency that went on to gain control of large pieces of territory in both the Central and Southern Somalia.

This radicalisation of the group can to a large extent be attributed to the invasion and occupation of Ethiopia in 2006. The group then transformed from a small, relatively unimportant part of a more moderate Islamic movement into the most powerful and radical faction in the history of Somalia.

Its ranks swelled with different kinds of new nationalist fighters, which reached thousands by 2008 and along the way the group established strong ties with Al-Queda and declared allegiance to Al Queda leader, Osama bin Laden. Al-Shabaab continues to pursue its broad aim of the establishment of an Islamic state in Somalia. In areas where it has control, Al-Shabaab enforces its own harsh interpretation of the Sharia law which some entails some restrictions on mainstream liberties and freedoms.

In order to fund its activities, the group, according to counterterrorism experts the group has benefited from several sources of income over the years from piracy, kidnapping, and extortion of local businesses, farmers, and aid groups, among others. In addition, the Council on Foreign Relations states that Al-Shabab has built up an extensive racketeering operation, with checkpoint taxation on illicitly traded charcoal bringing in millions of dollars per year despite a UN ban on Somali charcoal exports in place since 2012.

The group also profits from smuggling contraband sugar across the Kenyan border, a scheme in which Kenyan forces have been accused of involvement. The United Nations says that in 2019, Al-Shabaab spent upward of $21 million on fighters, weapons, and intelligence, and that the group was enjoying sizable budgetary surpluses.

The millions of dollars that this insurgent group has at its disposal is used to fund its brutal activities. Al-Shabaab is not only a threat to the internal stability of Somalia but to the region at large.

Domestically Somalia has since 2020 been unable to hold national elections due to the toxic and unstable political environment, thanks to the brutal activities of Al-Shabaab. It was only in 2022 that the country went to the polls. Across the region the group has targeted some places inside countries such as Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia with deadly effect. Counterterrorism efforts from the AU and the United States of America have not been successful as expected as the group remains an inherent threat to the security and stability of Somalia and the whole region of the Horn of Africa.