Regime change: A moving target
Ryder Gabathuse | Monday October 17, 2022 06:00
Botswana’s ruling party has been in power since the country's independence in 1966 and every election year, regime change has seemingly been an agonisingly and elusive moving target.
When the country goes to the polls in 2024, the opposition parties are likely to perpetuate the split of votes that continue to advantage the ruling party. Just recently, the stand-off between parties contracted to the coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), seem to have reversed what seemed like obvious gains in the opposition bloc.
There was drama at the UDC recently when the coalition president Duma Boko suspended his deputy Dumelang Saleshando and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) secretary-general Goretetse Kekgonegile for what he viewed as sustained ‘repugnant’ remarks that Boko felt were too much and somewhat undermined the UDC.
On the other hand, the BCP would suspend and later fire five legislators from the party accusing them of choosing to listen to Boko than their party president Saleshando when he instructed them not to honour an invitation for his replacement as the Leader of Opposition (LoO) in Parliament following his suspension as LoO. Selebi-Phikwe West MP Dithapelo Keorapetse would later replace Saleshando for the coveted opposition position.
After the MP for Okavango, Kenny Kapinga re-applied to the party after he was also fired, the quartet of Keorapetse, David Tshere, Onneetse Ramogapi and Dr Never Tshabang remained firm at the UDC and vowed to remain loyal no matter what.
The BCP, which now has about seven out of 15 UDC MPs, does not seem interested anymore to cooperate with the UDC lot leaving the strength of the main opposition party in Parliament enfeebled. This means the eight UDC dyed-in-the-wool legislators might find themselves face-to-face with their former allies.
Instead, the BCP has been holding cooperation talks with the Alliance for Progressives (AP), which has a single MP in the National Assembly and this gives the BCP/AP alliance eight MPs as well if the relationship materialises.
At its recent Mahalapye July conference, the BCP resolved to give the coalition project a solid six months before it opts out of the deal. Another opposition party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) has three legislators in the current Parliament.
Although the party (BPF) on paper has signed an alliance partnership with the UDC, there are disputes to the deal. It will be a positive gain to the UDC if the deal finally goes through but it will be problematic if the deal is reversed as a faction of the party purports to do so.
The two BPF factions rushed to court this week with the team led by the suspended party president Biggie Butale who recently declared himself the party rightful president losing to the other faction that is pro-UDC and led by the current acting president Caroline Lesang.
The Gaborone High Court gave the Lesang-led team recognition against Butale’s wishes and the court decision means the other BPF faction will go ahead with its elective congress, which the Butale team fought bitterly to frustrate but lost it.
It will be for the umpteenth time that attempts are made ahead of the next general election billed for 2024 to unite opposition parties to face the yet to defeat BDP whose fortunes have otherwise been waning.
The story of Botswana’s opposition parties especially towards the elections year has been a heart-wrenching drama that threatens to become a permanent feature on our political landscape.
The nation recently watched painfully as differences between the main opposition political parties, the Botswana National Front (BNF), BCP and the Botswana Peoples Party (BPP), which have grouped under the UDC metamorphosed into fully blown clashes.
Just recently, the nation witnessed the UDC failing to contain its internal wrangles that ended up spilling out of control.
As the opposition continues to fight, its supposed critical role in the society has been relegated to the back burner. The opposition's main role is to question the government of the day and hold it accountable rather than fighting each other.
In his analysis, University of Botswana (UB) lecturer in politics and administrative studies, Adam Mfundisi says opposition politics is not an easy enterprise in Africa and more specifically in Botswana. He is adamant that opposition parties are not sponsored by the State but expected to perform effective oversight of the government in power. The ruling party he says is overtly and covertly financed by the State.
Additionally, Mfundisi says: “The ruling party employs State institutions, resources, personnel and processes to undermine opposition growth and development.” He accused the BDP of utilising various strategies to weaken the opposition in Botswana.
“Amidst poverty and economic hardship, the BDP is able to attract opportunistic opposition leaders to defect to its ranks by offering them monetary and other non-monetary inducements,” the UB academic insists.
He added: “Sometimes, it covertly sponsors factions within opposition parties to cause instability within them.”
One of the negatives of one party dominance since independence is that it has led to weaknesses in opposition politics. The BDP has been in power since 1966 not because it is efficient and effective in the management of social, economic, and political development of Botswana. With a relatively small population and imbued with natural resources including diamonds, Mfundisi feels Botswana should have witnessed unprecedented levels of developments in many areas including welfare of citizens.
In the midst of plenty, he says citizens suffer from unemployment, poverty, inequality, criminality, and other social ills. He feels the BDP has misgoverned the country for five decades uninterrupted.
“Disunity in opposition parties is partly a reflection of political culture influenced by the BDP policies. Of course, there are problems of political leadership in opposition politics, which are also shown in the BDP,” he added.
He reiterated that the BDP is not special in the whole political disunity and instability.
“If the BDP was in opposition, the same fate we see in opposition parties would befall it too. Regime change cannot only be attained through the unity of all opposition parties. Change for the sake of it will not benefit the masses. We need an effective and meaningful opposition led by strategic leaders,” Mfundisi told Mmegi this week.
Governments have been changed throughout the world including Africa not through a single opposition formation. Nonetheless, it is desirable to have a single opposition coalition of political parties but in the case of Botswana it is seemingly difficult to manage a bloated opposition.
It would seem that the possibility of having two opposition coalitions of political parties might emerge. One comprising the BNF, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) and the BPP under the UDC formation and the other one consisting of Alliance for Progressives (AP), the BCP and newly formed the Botswana Labour Party (BLP) (a splinter party from the BNF). The name of the latter has not been decided yet.
Mfundisi acknowledges that to have a single coalition of opposition parties is elusive and may not succeed. He, however, highlighted a possibility of two coalition formations, which he says is a reality if the political forces are read correctly in the country.
“Two strong coalitions of political parties with clear visions, mission, strategies, philosophy and doctrine are more important than a single one that will be beset by differences. Effective coalitions are symbolised by a few coalition parties with shared vision and interests,” suggests the UB lecturer. To the political commentator, opposition parties need strategic leaders who promote democracy and good governance premised on transparency, accountability and respect for the rule of law.
Since 2019, the political commentator says the BDP has been in bad shape save that it is in government enjoying incumbency advantages. “It is poorly led resulting in erosion of trust and confidence on the party and government. Strategic leadership is missing leading to a weak Cabinet made up of uninspiring ministers bent of pursuing self-interests,” posits Mfundisi.
He highlighted that most of the ruling party elites, “are driven by desire for power, prestige, admiration, status, authority to feed their oversized ego. They display an exaggerated sense of entitlement, which is worsened by their empathy deficiencies.”
The biggest question is what happens in the event efforts for unity diametrically fails in the opposition bloc and can the opposition parties really bring regime change fragmented as they are?
Mfundisi was prompt in his response to this question: “Is facade to think that regime change can only be attained through a single party uniting all opposition parties? The UDC as a coalition of political parties has failed twice to attain power and we should look beyond it.”
What is needed to change government according to Mfundisi is constitutional reforms including electoral management and processes. He is adamant Batswana needs a free, fair, democratic, transparent, accountable and verifiable electoral process.
UDC spokesperson, Moeti Mohwasa in a recent interview, explained that the BCP actions show that it is not fully committed to what the UDC stands for. He stressed that the BCP has decided to cooperate with the AP, a non-UDC member contrary to the provisions of the UDC.
Meanwhile, at the BDP elective congress in Tsabong, President Mokgweetsi Masisi rallied his charges to take advantage of the troubles dogging the opposition bloc and move miles ahead. He even highlighted a need to, “cash in on the opposition infighting.”
He told the congress: “The opposition leaders themselves acknowledged that they are not ready to govern as they decry the lack of intra-party democracy in their collective called the UDC.”
He spoke of the uncertainty of the unity project that emanates from mistrust amongst the opposition leadership.