Maundeni’s ‘prophesy’ comes to pass
Ryder Gabathuse | Monday February 20, 2023 06:00
To naysayers, Maundeni sounded like a prophet of doom and his analysis was also treated like a broken record. But, lo and behold, things are falling apart in one of the most feared opposition coalitions ever.
To President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s recent admission, whilst some former ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) presidents grappled with other national issues, he was worried that in the 2019 General Election, his party encountered tough and well-resourced opposition.
“In the 2019 polls, as the BDP president, I was faced with a massive challenge from coalition parties. There is no BDP president who has faced such a strong opposition coalition at the polls, but we performed well and gained more nationally as compared to the previous elections,” Masisi told his party’s mass rally in Shoshong recently .
The President’s statement was a telling tale of a politician that celebrated the sudden challenges bedevilling the opposition bloc under the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).
The Botswana Congress Party (BCP), a key partner in the tri-party opposition coalition that includes Botswana National Front (BNF) and Botswana People’s Party (BPP), is on its way out of the coalition. Technically, the BCP is no longer part of the UDC. The opposition unity sealed ahead of the 2019 General Election has suffered a painful blow and this continues to raise doubt about coalition partnerships in Botswana.
The BCP is officially leaving the coalition, “because the governance and constitutional grievances that led to the suspension of the BCP from the UDC have not been addressed even up to now.”
In his research paper entitled, ‘Political Instability, Electoral Violence, and Coalition Governments in Africa: The Basis for Successful Liberal Politics and the Failure of Coalitions in Botswana’, Maundeni has said that attempts by opposition parties to institutionalise their own cooperation through coalitions for winning elections have been problematic with visible and costly failures.
The paper focused on a case study on democratic Botswana. “Therefore, localised and without clear historical precedence in Africa, Botswana parties’ attempted coalitions for winning elections are having a hard time taking root and functioning.
“Coalitions between Botswana opposition political parties have also been attempted but either collapsed or failed to win elections,” said Maundeni, hitting a nail on its head with the case of Botswana. Without being specific to the UDC case, Maundeni observed that the problem with the coalition is that opposition parties negotiating election-winning coalitions have based them on secrecy, elite orientation and disregard for the voting public. He said Batswana prefer a coalition of opposition parties for purposes of winning elections, but yet secrecy has always worked in favour of opposed internal elements to disrupt working together.
Maundeni’s view confirms the fidget opposition parties have endured over the years, which has been exacerbated by mistrust that continues to dog the opposition bloc. In their previous lives, the current parties in the coalition had worked together and left scars, which will continue to haunt them.
For instance, the BCP is an offshoot of the BNF, which was birthed at a BNF tumultuous gathering in Palapye in 1998. Ahead of the 2014 General Election, the BCP walked out of crucial opposition unity talks. There has been a trust deficit between the partners in the opposition ranks.
Information sourced from Botswana’s Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) shows that in the 2014 General Election, 824,073 people registered for the elections.
The ruling BDP won the elections via a popular vote of less than 50% (46.45 %) with 320,647 people voting for the ruling party. The UDC of 2014 garnered 207,113 votes whilst the BCP got 140,998, which translates into 30.01% and 20.43% respectively.
Opposition votes combined made 348,111, which give the opposition a chance to have won the 2014 polls if they had combined their resources. Independents also polled about 21,484 votes. About 8,167 votes were registered as invalid.
Come the 2019 General Election, the BDP widened its total votes to 406,561 whilst the united opposition slumped compared to the previous elections via 277,121 votes. A newcomer, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) got 39,561 votes whilst a weakened Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) got 2,058 votes. Real Alternative Party (RAP) registered 145 votes whilst Independents stood at 12,734 votes.
Besides the UDC election rigging concerns in the last polls, Maundeni’s observations are further heightened that efforts by Botswana’s opposition to come together to win elections were simply a failure.
Justin Hunyepa is Botswana National Front’s (BNF) spokesperson. He recently expressed concerns to Mmegi about what is happening to the coalition.
He noted that the BDP was also worried and very much concerned by a united front and therefore, sponsors some of the breakaways. Powerful individuals, he said, are targeted and given some incentives and suddenly they just become difficult and speak in tongues, ultimately jumping ship.
He said the BDP buying spree has been seen with several other well-known opposition MPs and activists who have been recruited and given Cabinet positions and other incentives.
Notwithstanding the departure of the BCP, Hunyepa was insistent that the remaining coalition partners would continue doing well citing the impending council by-elections at Bosele and Grootlaagte wards. He dismissed the BCP-AP alliance as unlikely to make an impact at the forthcoming by-election.
Another UB academic and political and administrative studies lecturer, Adam Mfundisi observes that coalition politics is a torturous process littered with landmines, potholes, detours, and road closures.
Mfundisi’s analysis is that it becomes more difficult if it (coalition politics) contains many political parties and players with different ideological persuasions and leadership. Certainly, coalitions of political parties are more complex and dynamic to manage in the long run.
“A coalition political party is better positioned to succeed because all political formations dissolve to form a larger political formation. Furthermore, coalitions should not be a product of expediency and convenience but rather a result of a broad vision for the socio-economic and political development of a country. Coalition politics require strategic leaders, not autocrats or dictators,” posited the UB lecturer.
He added: “They must be accountable to the coalition formation rather than to themselves. Members of the coalition outfit must be sovereign and supreme rather than leaders. Leaders must be accountable and responsive to the needs, interests, and aspirations of the rank-and-file membership. They must display moral competence to promote ethical leadership.”
Mfundisi does not subscribe to the notion that the ‘corrupt BDP’ can only be defeated by a single coalition of opposition political parties. He feels coalitions must be premised on development rather than convenience because the consequences of an unstable coalition can result in a political tsunami for the country.
“A three-horse contest is likely to result if the AP, the BCP, and the Botswana Labour Party (BLP) talks succeed and they form another coalition in addition to the UDC. In a multi-party democracy, a proliferation of political parties is expected,” he said.
He noted that what is essential is political contestation premised on free, fair, credible, democratic and accountable elections.
He is adamant that the alleged electoral fraud and rigging must be eliminated from local politics.
As for voter apathy, Mfundisi stresses that it is a consequence of many factors including the non-availability of choice for the voters. He highlighted that a wider choice would attract many political contestants and voters to participate in the electoral process. He called upon the IEC to be independent and autonomous of the political establishment.
The political commentator feels that the BDP is at its weakest point towards the 2024 General Election.
He cites serious crises in the economic, social and political environment.
He observed: “Very few governments have been re-elected amidst deepening socio-economic and political malice. In addition, the BDP lacks visionary leadership, which can engineer transformations in the social, economic and political landscape.”
Massive alleged corruption which has become institutionalised, Mfundisi feels has led to unprecedented levels of poverty, unemployment, inequality, diseases, criminality, and other societal ills. “And since the ascendance of the BDP government under the tutelage of Masisi, there have been limited transformational agenda to turn around the socio-economic and political regression taking place in Botswana,” he noted.
He says there have been more political rhetoric rather than substantive public policy developments to tackle the woes the country and its people face in the 21st century.
He also observed that there are more promises and limited actions in dealing with the problems and challenges facing the people. Public policies have been turned into personal and factional policies to advance the interests of the people.
Mfundisi finds it difficult to judge the UDC as a coalition of political parties as he is not privy to the coalition agreement entered into between the then UDC and the BCP and the overall political architecture.
But, on the performance of the UDC in the 2019 General Election, he pointed out that some coalition partners did not execute their mandate vigorously resulting in the UDC losing parliamentary seats to the BDP more so in the southern part of the country.
To be more candid, Mfundisi is of the view that the BNF in particular, as the leading party in the UDC, failed the coalition. Historically, the BNF was entrenched in the southern part of the country, particularly in Gaborone and its environs.
In the 2014 General Election, the UDC performed superbly in Kweneng, Kgatleng, and the BCP in the Balete area. The poor performance of the BNF of the UDC deprived the coalition of victory at the polls.
“I am aware of a marathon of petitions filed by the UDC at the courts of law in Botswana and the injustice meted on the cases. The courts in Botswana did not follow other jurisdictions where petitions are heard on merits and each party takes care of the costs. Our courts seemed to have been vindictive of opposition parties despite the national interest of the cases. A weak and disorganised BNF cost the UDC the 2019 General Election,” Mfundisi said.
The UB academic said the BDP and opposition parties suffer from similar problems and challenges. He, however, indicated that a level political playing field and an independent and autonomous electoral administration body are necessary conditions for a free, fair, democratic, accountable and verifiable electoral process.
The BDP, he said, “is not invisible or omnipotent. It has continuously exploited its incumbent status to win elections. The BDP is more exposed than the opposition parties towards the 2024 General Election. It is beset with overt and covert factionalism as well as poor leadership leading to a socio-economic and political crisis.”
He is of the opinion that there is the erosion of public trust and confidence in government, the BDP and its leadership. At best, Mfundisi is adamant that the alleged electoral fraud and rigging previously reported must be vigorously tacked for each vote to be counted and the will of the people to prevail.
Civil society organisations including political parties, the media, labour, youth organisations, and others, the political commentator challenged to ensure that unethical behaviour in the electoral process is dealt with decisively.
One of the factors to critically ponder according to Mfundisi is that the BDP has always exploited its incumbency position to determine the rules of the contest including the referees.
“Gerrymandering has been crafted by the BDP and its government to determine the electoral outcomes in every election. The BDP has also stuck to the First Past the Post electoral system to stay in power.
In some elections, the BDP garnered 52% of the national vote but had more than 80% of MPs in Parliament. The BDP and its government have also used undemocratic legislation to increase its membership in both national and local government levels,” he said in summation.