Tough road ahead for Tinubu

Solly Rakgomo | Monday March 20, 2023 06:00

Tinubu emerged the winner of a closely fought contest for Nigeria’s presidency. However, opposition parties have rejected the results and say they will challenge them in court.

The election was marred by reports of voter suppression, and outbreaks of violence, particularly in Tinubu’s stronghold Lagos. Voters also faced lengthy delays and some election officials failed to turn up to polling stations.

Tinubu will become Nigeria’s fifth president since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999, emerging as winner for the country’s top job on his first attempt. However, one may be forced to ask who is the man who will lead Africa’s largest economy, as well as inherit its plethora of economic and security crises? Tinubu (70) was governor in Lagos between 1999 and 2007 where he is credited with pioneering reforms that led to the transformation of the state, now Nigeria’s economic hub. Tinubu has gone from grass to grace after a rocky start. He left Nigeria for the US to study in Chicago and was sometimes forced to wash dishes to make ends meet, according to the Bola Tinubu library.

Upon returning to Nigeria, Tinubu worked in the oil sector before venturing into politics. He was elected into the Nigerian Senate in 1992 and served until the next year when the military seized power. He fled the country in 1994 after the pro-democracy group he co-founded failed to sway the military to relinquish power. Known as ‘Jagaban’ or ‘Warrior of Warriors’ by his followers, Tinubu has shackles emblazoned on his trademark woven caps, to symbolise a time he lost his freedom when he was forced into exile by the dictator Sani Abacha.

He returned to Nigeria after four years and was successful in his bid for governorship in Lagos following Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. He has promised to tackle a litany of problems, including escalating violence, double-digit inflation and industrial-scale oil theft. His supporters portray him as an effective administrator who improved roads, trash collection and other services in the chaotic city of Lagos during his tenure as governor from 1999-2007. Opponents are skeptical; many of Nigeria’s problems worsened under outgoing president Muhammadu Buhari, on whose party ticket Tinubu ran. Tinubu faces a plethora of socio-economic and security challenges, which will surely make his road for the next four years to be not only rocky but foggy as well. On the economic front, he has to deal with the deteriorating state of the economy, which has adversely impacted by the large scale corruption by both public servants and political elite. Unemployment, especially amongst the youth, hovers at around 42%. The misery of poverty and youth unemployment is a catalyst to a plethora of security challenges that are facing Nigeria today.

The incoming president has to deal with a wide range of security issues that are facing Nigeria on multiple fronts. Firstly, the threat of Boko Haram has troubled Nigeria since 2009. Boko Haram has expanded into new areas and taking advantage of Nigeria’s poverty and other security challenges to fuel its extremist ideologies. According to the UN, by the end of 2022, conflict with the group had led to the deaths of almost 350,000 people and forced out millions from their homes. Boko Haram launches deadly raids, in some cases hoisting its flag and imposing extremist rule on local people. It levies taxes on farms and the sale of agricultural products. The once booming international fish market in the Chad Basin is now completely controlled by the group. Tinubu has to come up with effective strategies in order to defeat this group and this will not be an easy task.

Secondly, there have been violent disputes between nomadic animal herders and farmers in Nigeria for many years. However, disagreements over the use of land and water, as well as grazing routes, have been exacerbated by climate change and the spread of the Sahara Desert, as herders move further south looking for pasture.

Thousands have been killed in clashes over limited resources. Benue State, in the centre of the country, has recorded the deadliest attacks. Thirdly, one of the scariest threats for families in Nigeria is the frequent kidnapping of school children from their classrooms and boarding houses. More than 1,000 students have been abducted from their schools since December 2020; many only released after thousands of dollars are paid as ransom. Some of the kidnappers are commonly referred to as “bandits” in Nigeria. These criminals raid villages, kidnap civilians and burn down houses. Attacks by bandits have forced thousands of people to flee their homes and seek shelter in other parts of the country.

The North West is the epicentre of these attacks. In Zamfara state alone, over 3,000 people have been killed since 2012 and the attacks are still going on. Hundreds of schools were closed following abductions at schools in Zamfara and Niger state, where children as young as three-years-old were seized. By every indication, Nigeria’s lucrative kidnapping industry is thriving, expanding into previously safe areas and seemingly beyond the control of the country’s army. It poses a real threat to trade and education as well as the country’s farming communities. This is another area which might prove a challenge for Tinubu during his presidency.

Fourth, a separatist group called the Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob) has been clashing with Nigeria’s security agencies. Ipob wants a group of states in the south-east, mainly made up of people from the Igbo ethnic group, to break away and form the independent nation of Biafra. The group was founded in 2014 by Nnamdi Kanu, who was arrested and is set to face trial on terrorism and treason charges. The idea of Biafra is not new. In 1967, regional leaders declared an independent state, which led to a brutal civil war and the death of up to a million people. Supporters of Kanu’s movement have been accused of launching deadly attacks on government offices, prisons and the homes of politicians and community leaders.

Last but not least, oil theft is another security challenge that Tibubu has to grapple with. Oil is Nigeria’s biggest foreign export earner, and militants in the Niger Delta have long agitated for a greater share of the profit. They argue the majority of the oil comes from their region and the environmental damage caused by its extraction has devastated communities and made it impossible for them to fish or farm. For years, militants pressured the government by kidnapping oil workers and launching attacks on security personnel and oil infrastructure, like pipelines. There are also many heavily armed criminal syndicates who carry out acts of armed robberies at sea as well as piracy. This armed cult groups pose a security challenge in the region and oil industry officials have been warning that militancy is once again picking up. It is against this background that once Tinubu is inaugurated as president he has to hit the ground running to save Africa’s most populous country from the state of total socio-economic and security collapse.