The subtle tensions between Masisi, Ramaphosa
Lewanika Timothy | Monday February 5, 2024 06:00
Nobody expects two bold leaders to dance to “Gimme Hope Joana” in Pretoria or Gaborone together like two acquainted pals ready to enjoy a pint.
However, diplomatic ties at the Head of State level between Botswana and South Africa are noticeably cooling, too stiff for countries bound by so much together. Botswana and South Africa dually lie at the basal end of the long African coast stretching from Cape to Cairo, knitted together by strong economic ties and a rich cultural history.
Students of politics and history often refer to the two as blood sisters separated by mere colonial borders, while those unlettered in geography think Botswana is a province of South Africa.
A more recent peep beneath this cloak of inter-connectedness reveals eyebrow-raising developments around the relationship between Masisi and Ramaphosa. For one, State visits between Pretoria and Gaborone outside of the Bi-National Commissions, have been infrequent. State visits are the bedrock of continued diplomacy. They signal calm waters of bilateral relations and affirm parties’ continued support for each other’s political and economic aspirations. In 2021, three years into the ascent of power by Masisi, he had undertaken only one state visit to South Africa.
Some may argue that diplomatic trips are an unfair diplomacy yardstick but with the benefit of hindsight, the infrequency of bilateral interactions beyond the Bi-National Commissions, could be read as a sign of a cooling relationship.
On the other hand, however, the paucity of State visits between Ramaphosa and Masisi could also be put down to the fact that the SA leader generally does not engage bilaterally with his African peers. Ramaphosa has instead preferred to position his country as Africa’s representative on the global stage, engaging at the international level in organisations such as BRICS and as an invited guest to the Group of Seven.
Continentally, Ramaphosa clearly prefers engaging with blocs such as SADC rather than bilaterally, a preference perhaps, cemented by his time as African Union chairperson. Geopolitical issues have not made things any easier for the two leaders. South Africa has increasingly aligned with the global Eastern bloc of Russia and China due to its alliances in BRICS. Botswana, meanwhile, has maintained its leanings towards the West, particularly the United States, which is the major consumer of Botswana’s diamonds.
And so, rather than looking east to SA, Masisi has instead increased his interactions with the leaders of Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe, as seen in the near countless number of meetings in recent years. These trips are not just ‘gentlemen’ meetings; they are strategic meetings forging stronger economic and political ties at the regional level, that either by design or inadvertently that lessen the shadow SA has traditionally cast over Botswana.
Masisi has asserted himself as the chief diplomat of Botswana and frequently traverses the world seeking investments and better trading deals with different partners. Given the economic ties between the two, one would expect that the first place to start is where Botswana gets its bread, being the South African economy. South Africa is also the birthplace of De Beers, the local economy’s single biggest entity, whose revenues have powered growth over the decades.
Most of the goods destined for Botswana pass through South African shores, while the regional powerhouse is also the source of more than 90% of Botswana’s non-diamond imports. The chief diplomacy led by Masisi, it appears, would need to start in SA, especially as Gaborone fights to grow its manufacturing sector out of Pretoria’s shadow. However, to the contrary, the chief diplomat has preferred to lift his eyes to the rest of the world.
In the agricultural sector, the Masisi-led government in 2022 instituted a ban on 16 types of vegetables enforced to bolster the local horticulture industry, which SA says has had a negative bearing on its own farmers. The stiff competition from South African produce had rendered the local market impenetrable for local farmers. As of August 2023, Statistics Botswana valued vegetable imports at over P81 million, with over 60% coming from SA.
Government’s decision late last year to extend the embargo and expand the list of 16 vegetables, sent more pain to South Africa where large-scale farmers had been hoping to resume their traditional dominance of the local sector. The vegetable ban has stirred discontent in SA, with farmers expressing dismay and threatening a potential trade war. Whether they are communicating via back channels, publicly, Masisi and Ramaphosa have not engaged on the horticultural standoff.
On Wednesday, Foreign Affairs Minister, Lemogang Kwape, told Mmegi that Botswana was acting within its rights to pursue economic growth.
He was responding to questions on whether the moves by the government to break the country’s trade dependence on South Africa could force the latter to make life difficult for Batswana in any way. Kwape also said as a growing economy, Botswana has the responsibility to build comparative advantages in internal trade before allowing the influx of other goods into the country.
“We are a growing economy and we are doing what is necessary to build our internal sectors to be able to withstand market competition,” he said.
Further quizzed on the strength of diplomatic ties between South Africa and Botswana under Masisi’s reign, Kwape said relations remained strong despite differences in agreements such as the revenue distribution of SACU and differences on whether government should impose a trade ban on some commodities or not.
“Like former president Sir Ketumile Masire said, Botswana is a growing economy with no known enemies. We work with everyone and that is our approach to development. “The decisions we take are meant to better our industries and make Botswana competitive,” he said.
Masisi’s approach to relations with Ramaphosa have not been helped by the questions around former president, Khama. The tussle between Khama and Masisi has dominated his tenure in power, with South Africa and Ramaphosa specifically, caught between the two supremos.
In 2021, Khama went into exile in South Africa shortly before 16 criminal charges were instigated against him. He was joined by his family after they claimed that the Masisi regime was on a legal headhunt amidst dark allegations of attempted assassinations. The “escape” to South Africa by the Khama family has been read with the family’s close ties with Ramaphosa’s sister-in-law Bridgette Motsepe-Radebe. Khama is perceived to find South Africa a safe haven where he feels protected, thanks to the power he can wield around closest to Ramaphosa.
Khama’s stay in South Africa, while essentially being fugitive from Botswana’s courts, has raised tensions and apparently walked an elephant into the room of whatever warmer relations Masisi may have hoped for with Ramaphosa.
Botswana has the option of testing the waters through the legal route by launching an extradition request for Khama as he has to appear before the courts of law in Botswana regarding his charges. This has not happened as yet and extraditions are long legal processes which South Africa can always punch bureaucratic loopholes through, if at all it wishes to protect Khama. Curiously, a plot twist is emerging in the relationship between Ramaphosa and Masisi. The South African President is increasingly finding himself in the same situation Masisi is in, as former SA president, Jacob Zuma, officially raises political opposition to the ANC and presents his formal challenge to Ramaphosa.
Both Masisi and Ramaphosa are now facing the challenge of a predecessor who won’t leave the stage for the new dancer.
Whether the new found common ground will warm relations between the two, remains to be seen. Both men have other more urgent things on their minds such as the hard to be fought elections due later this year in both countries.