The magic number 31

Spira Tlhankane | Monday April 22, 2024 06:00

Speaking of October 2024, that is the month of the General Election and it ends on the 31st. Most months of the year have 31 days and besides October others are January, March, May, July, August and December.

That is just a fun fact but the delimitation exercise, which saw the number of constituencies being increased from 57 to 61, has made the number 31 a very important target for every political party.

With about five months until the 2024 General Election, Mmegi looks at what each party has and the number needed to reach 31 in the event that they retain their constituencies.

BCP (24 needed) Although the BCP contested the 2019 General Election under the opposition coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), the lime movement currently has seven Members of Parliament (MPs), which means the party needs 24 constituencies to win state power.

The BCP under the UDC managed to win 11 legislative seats in 2019 but when the Dumelang Saleshando-led party left the UDC, it expelled four of its defiant MPs. The BCP currently boasts of some kind of dominance in the North West where Saleshando holds Maun West, secretary-general Goretetse Kekgonegile has Maun East, Caterpillar Hikuama for Ngami, Kenny Kapinga for Okavango. In the central, the BCP vice president Taolo Lucas has Bobonong (now Bobirwa), Kesitegile Gobotswang has Sefhare-Ramokgonami (now Tswapong South) while Kgoberego Nkawana has Selebi-Phikwe East.

After losing four of their constituencies being Selebi-Phikwe West, Mahalapye West, Palapye and Nkange to UDC following their exit, the BCP is now aiming to retake them as it chases 31 MP seats. Recently, Saleshando revealed that they are also targeting Tati East where former youth league president, Tlhabologo Furniture, is the candidate and Kgatleng West where former High Court Judge and minister, Unity Dow, is contesting.

Saleshando said he was convinced that the political ground is more fertile than ever. He said as he has been touring the country, there are indications on the ground that the BCP is set to prevail. The party was formed in 1998 after 11 Botswana National Front (BNF) MPs led by the recently departed Michael Dingake quit the latter to form the BCP on the eve of the 1999 General Election.

Only one returned to Parliament after the 1999 election and in the subsequent polls in 2004, the party still had one MP in Saleshando who was the Parly newbie at the time after defeating Margaret Nasha of the BDP against all odds in a David versus Goliath encounter. In 2009, the party did quite well with its alliance with the Botswana Alliance Movement (BAM) and they managed to scoop four constituencies to make it five in total.

The BCP at the time managed to wrestle Selebi-Phikwe West, Chobe, Okavango and Ngami constituencies from the ruling BDP. In 2004, the BCP was only elected by 68, 556 people but in 2009, it increased the numbers to 119, 738 a growth of 51, 182. For a fast-growing party, the 2014 debacle where it only managed three MPs, was regarded as a massive miscalculation especially considering that the BDP could not even attain over 50% of the popular vote.

The UDC (24 needed) The opposition coalition is currently in turmoil following the exit of the BCP and recently Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) has a lot to make up for. The UDC lost Mahalapye East recently when its youngest MP, Yandani Boko, resigned from Parliament leaving the seat vacant. The UDC has the controversial quartet of MPs who chose the coalition over the BCP. These are the Leader of Opposition (LoO) and Selebi-Phikwe West, MP Dithapelo Keorapetse, MP for Palapye. Onneetse Ramogapi, MP for Nkange. Dr Never Tshabang, and MP for Mahalapye West. David Tshere. The UDC has one MP from founding coalition partner Botswana National Front (BNF) being Motsamai Motsama for Gantsi South. Following the Francistown West MP Ignatius Moswaane’s defection from the BDP to the UDC coalition partner, the Botswana People’s Party (BPP), the UDC added one to their fold before Parliament introduced a law, which bars legislators from defecting to other parties.

Before the law was introduced, the UDC lost two MPs as Tonota MP and current Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, Pono Moatlhodi, and Shoshong legislator, Aubrey Lesaso, left for the ruling BDP. When the Alliance for Progressives (AP) joined the UDC last year, the coalition managed to gain another MP in Francistown South’s Wynter Mmolotsi. In total the UDC just like the BCP has seven MPs and if they manage to retain them they also need 24 seats to win government.

BPF (27 needed) A party, which was formed on the eve of the 2019 General Election, the BPF recently revoked its UDC affiliation and currently has four MPs including leader Mephato Reatile of Jwaneg-Mabutsane. Just like the others, Reatile defected from the BDP to join the BPF, which is dominated by Serowe MPs. Other Serowe MPs are Leepetswe Lesedi from Serowe South, Onalepelo Kedikilwe from Serowe West and Baratiwa Mathoothe from the Serowe North constituency. The BDP splinter party, which has former president Ian Khama as its patron, needs 27 seats to win government. Before leaving the UDC, the BPF were allocated Tswapong South, Selebi-Phikwe East, Okavango East, Okavango West, Ngami, Lephephe-Lentsweletau, Mmadinare, Nata-Gweta, Boteti East and Tswapong North. The UDC leader Boko has since announced that BPF candidates who wish to contest for those constituencies can still do so under the umbrella.

BDP (retains 39 and

perhaps add more) The ruling BDP, which has been at the helm since 1966 when Botswana gained independence, has only one job, retain constituencies and perhaps add more. Retaining the constituencies they had won in 2019 may seem like a simple task but it is not as things have changed in the five years. Constituents are now aiming to oust some legislators they feel had not worked for them.

Currently the BDP has 39 MPs in Parliament and they are battling the primaries dilemma to come up with strong candidates for the General Election. With four new constituencies created, the BDP will also look towards clinching them. Perhaps another challenge for the ruling party is regaining some constituencies in the central, which they had lost to the opposition in 2019 as a result of the Khama magic. The BDP also has a challenge ahead as they seek to retain the Gaborone constituencies, which were previously held by the opposition before the 2019 election.