Dynamics of proxy wars in global politics

Solly Rakgomo | Monday April 29, 2024 06:00

Proxy wars, a timeless fixture of geopolitics, have returned amid escalating strategic rivalries.

Major powers, avoiding direct confrontation, manipulate third-party forces to advance their agendas in destabilised regions like Yemen, Syria, and Ukraine. Puppet regimes and insurgents clash under the orchestration of distant patrons, enabling great powers to test weaponry, disrupt rivals, and secure strategic positions without risking direct military engagement.

This resurgence is no surprise as throughout history, proxy warfare has offered a low risk means for power projection. With nuclear-armed adversaries, the risks of direct conflict are too grave. The real battleground is a shadowy world of alliances, arms shipments, and backroom decisions that determine the fate of nations.

In the domain of global geopolitics, major powers often engage in proxy wars as a strategic way to further their interests without risking direct military confrontation. This allows them to test military capabilities indirectly by supplying and training proxy groups, secure control over vital resources, and expand their geopolitical influence.

Ideological differences, financial considerations, and the desire to maintain a balance of power frequently drive these conflicts. Historical examples like the Yemen war, Syria War, Ukraine war, Korean War, Vietnam War and Afghan War illustrate how superpowers covertly influenced factions, ultimately fueling regional instability.

Proxy wars remain a complex and significant part of modern geopolitical maneouvering.

Major powers strengthen their proxy states through multifaceted support, with a particular emphasis on military aid, training, and intelligence sharing. Military aid equips proxy forces with weaponry and logistical resources, strengthening their combat capabilities. Training programmes enhance the skills and tactics of proxy fighters, making them a more effective fighting force. Additionally, intelligence sharing provides crucial data for strategic decision-making, allowing proxies to operate with greater effectiveness. This comprehensive support empowers major powers to exert significant influence in regions where direct intervention is undesirable.

Yemen has been torn apart by conflict since 2014, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis driven by internal conflicts and external involvement. The Houthi movement, a Zaidi Shia group, from Yemen initially rebelled against the government seeking improved living conditions and political change.

This internal strife quickly escalated into a war when a coalition led by Saudi Arabia intervened to support the overthrown government. The Saudis saw the Houthi advancement not as a threat to Yemen’s stability but as a potential opening for Iran, their regional rival near their southern border.

Despite Iran denying control over the Houthis, there are allegations of providing them with resources and strategic aid. With this support, the Houthis fought back effectively turning Yemen into a battleground for Saudi-Iranian competition at great cost to its people.

The impact on Yemen has been catastrophic with ongoing conflict causing one of the worst crises globally. Millions of civilians are suffering from famine, diseases and lack of essentials due to damaged infrastructure from airstrikes. Shelling impedes access to services like food and healthcare. Yamen’s plight serves as a warning about the dangers associated with wars. The conflict in Syria, which began in 2011 during the Arab Spring uprisings, has evolved into a war where the well being of the Syrian people is overshadowed by the strategic interests of outside forces.

The Assad government, determined to maintain control at any cost, received support from Russia and Iran. Russia, aiming to secure its position in the Mediterranean and assert its influence, provided military assistance that shifted the balance in favour of Assad. Iran, driven by rivalries and a quest for power, armed and funded loyalist forces as well as its own allied militias.

On the side, a diverse mix of factions emerged with backing from different regional and Western powers with varying objectives. The US concentrated on fighting ISIS while offering aid to rebel groups. Turkey and the Gulf nations supported opposition factions based on their interests, sometimes conflicting with each other. This fragmented support efforts to form a front against Assad.

The immense suffering experienced by Syria highlights the impact of wars.

Countless lives have been torn apart by displacement, death, and injuries. Once vibrant cities now lie in ruins, as a reminder of the human toll exacted by power plays. The heartbreaking situation in Syria, highlights how easily internal conflicts and hopes for a future can be manipulated by forces leading to a vicious cycle of violence that devastates countries and leaves lasting wounds for years to come.

The conflict in Ukraine, which escalated when Russia launched a full scale military operation on February 24, 2022, has turned into a crisis and a battleground for proxy wars. President Vladimir Putin justified Russia’s intervention by citing “demilitarisation and denazification ” resulting in the occupation of territories and a serious humanitarian crisis with numerous civilian casualties and millions displaced. In response, Western countries have come together to support Ukraine by providing military, and humanitarian aid.

The United States has been the leading contributor of assistance pledging over $44 billion since President Biden took office with support from the UK and other allies. This assistance has played a role in Ukraine’s defense and efforts to push back against Russia, resulting in the recapture of substantial territory.

The conflict serves as an example of wars where external powers back forces to pursue their strategic goals indirectly without direct confrontation as highlighted in studies conducted by RAND Corporation. The situation in Ukraine highlights the interplay among power dynamics, influence strategies and warfare tactics in the era where major powers engage in indirect conflicts with broad implications for global security and stability.

The human toll of proxy wars is a grim testament to the devastating impact these conflicts have on civilian populations. In the shadows of geopolitical maneouvering, the real and immediate consequences for those caught in the crossfire are catastrophic. Civilian areas, including homes, schools, and hospitals, often become battlegrounds, leading to a high number of civilian casualties, as seen in Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine. Beyond the loss of life, millions are displaced, losing their homes and communities, which in turn strains resources and destabilises neighbouring countries.

The destruction extends to the very infrastructure that supports life. In Yemen, the war has precipitated a near-famine state for many, exacerbated by blockades and the destruction of vital infrastructure.

Outbreaks of diseases like cholera and a collapsed healthcare system compound the suffering.

Ukraine’s conflict has disrupted its role as a major agricultural exporter, affecting global food stability. The enduring consequences of proxy wars on civilians are profound, leaving behind broken families, destroyed cities, and long-lasting wounds that hinder recovery efforts long after the conflicts have ceased. The international community’s response must encompass not only immediate humanitarian aid, but also long-term initiatives aimed at healing the deep scars left by these wars.