Tsogwane: Holding onto an elusive dream
Spira Tlhankane | Monday May 13, 2024 06:00
“I have a dream,” is Martin Luther King’s famous 1963 speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, but Tsogwane also dreams of a ‘joyous daybreak’. Tsogwane’s dream includes a Bible, his right hand raised and the Chief Justice on the left. Just like (Martin Luther) King, Tsogwane has a dream that ‘every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain’ to clear the way for his takeover as the next President.
It is perhaps, important to note that Tsogwane’s dream is dependent on the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) winning the October polls and Tsogwane himself retaining the Boteti West constituency, which he has held for 25 years. But, the thing about dreams is that they could be shattered anytime by an external stimulus or when it is just time to wake up.
Speaking of external stimuli, Tsogwane who is unchallenged for his party primaries and is also the party chairperson, might experience some turbulence in his efforts to keep the dream alive. His long time challenger in Boteti West, Sam Digwa, of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) has returned to give him another possible scare. With a 293 votes win margin, no one can forget how Tsogwane narrowly flipped results at the last general election in 2019 when Digwa led for a very long time during the counting.
Tsogwane’s big task is to fight with all that he has because one ‘misstep’, his presidential aspirations would be over and would find himself waking up to a whole different reality. One is required to win a parliamentary seat to become VP and the Constitution does not allow Specially Elected MPs to be nominated for the VP position.
Whether some see him as a big dreamer, the veteran politician still harbours ambitions to be President despite many politicians especially within the BDP openly doubting his abilities to assume the country’s highest office.
But looking back, no one knew in 1999 when Tsogwane first stepped on to the National Assembly that his ultimate dream would be the presidency. Dreams change every night, sometimes depending on the stimuli such as sights and sensations in the sleep environment. But Tsogwane’s dreams changed the moment President Mokgweetsi Masisi announced him as the nominee for the vice presidency in 2018.
The man was ready to retire and approaching the 2019 General Election he wanted the bigger chair, he was just not done yet. Dreams can be terrifying but for Tsogwane, who feels more invigorated than ever that his elevation to President is guaranteed, it has been a fascinating and shaky dream since 2019. It is slightly a longer dream because Tsogwane had to wait for two terms to get his turn.
Dreams are unreal settings and this presidency is one of those Tsogwane wishes he could act them out in reality. It has been bumpy in the sense that he has experienced some sort of sleep paralysis when reports heightened that Masisi will appoint Finance Minister Peggy Serame as his successor ahead of him. Last year, during the BDP national council and extraordinary congress held in Palapye, Masisi endorsed Tsogwane indicating that if the party secures victory in the October general election, Tsogwane will retain his position, dispelling any notions of Serame assuming the role.
Masisi’s reaffirmation kept Tsogwane’s dream on track and this was not images created in a deep sleep, the Leader of the House was quite awake as Masisi described him as the longest-serving Member of Parliament (MP), the most experienced and dedicated, disciplined cadre of the party. “My choice of VP today and tomorrow,” Masisi declared firmly, dismissing any speculation of Tsogwane’s removal from the VP position in favour of Serame. “Serame will not be my VP. Tsogwane is my VP, please understand,” Masisi emphasised.
Even after the biggest endorsements of them all, there are people who still feel that the best thing Masisi should do if he wins the 2024 polls would be to dump his VP and pick another person who will take over in 2028. But, after winning the Tsabong BDP elective congress in 2022 where he beat former Selebi-Phikwe East legislator, Nonofo Molefhi, for the chairperson position, Tsogwane gave a speech and set a goal that has been pursued by every Vice President, the State House.
In Tsabong, Tsogwane indicated that he did not understand why his detractors wrote his political obituary when the same people have lost elections repeatedly. “I have not lost any election. Between me and them, who is better?,” Tsogwane bragged.
Tsogwane disclosed that MPs past and present thought he was not intelligent. He said all the legislators who found him in Parliament have lost and that he remained the last man standing. “God helped me because they didn’t think I would become VP. They ignored and underestimated me, but that was their mistake,” he warned.
Tsogwane is the same man who defied political odds by beating the late political stalwart, Gabofele Masusu, who was the then incumbent MP at the BDP primaries in Boteti ahead of the 1999 General Election.
Tsogwane has never lost any primary or general election and out of all the MPs in Parliament today, he is the most experienced when it comes to governance. He is playing second fiddle at the moment but reports are that the former Social Studies teacher is currently plotting a path to the State House in 2028 while shoring up the BDP’s re-election bid this year.
Right now, he is bidding his time. His name tends not to surface at the top of people’s wish lists for 2028, but Tsogwane seems not bothered by speculations and proclaimed kingmakers within the BDP. As he dreams, his eyes are open because the political world has long tried to game out his plans for the top job. His eyes are set on mounting a successful bid for the election in a few months to make sure that Masisi has a baton to hand over. After the BDP’s primaries known as Bulela Ditswe, as the chairperson, he has to help guide the Masisi re-election campaign, because that is where his bread is buttered.
From fumbling during the presentation of speeches, Tsogwane has evolved from an easy target for social media memes into a leader who has validity. He is asserting himself more confidently in public, including his recent speech during the arrival of 45 remains of Batswana who died in South Africa.
With Masisi’s constant trips abroad, Tsogwane has held the fort as the Acting State President on numerous occasions although it is not the same power he will wield if Masisi hands over the baton to him.
Tsogwane appears to continue to be playing to his strengths, especially in the party where he is the chairperson. He is said to be solicited for advice and sometimes asked to tackle major party missions. Tsogwane, a former Assistant Minister of Finance and Development Planning and substantive Minister of Local Government, has spent almost his entire adult life in office, and in his legislative career, he acquired a reputation as the fixer.
These are the qualities which also earned Tsogwane his boss’ trust and affection. There are, of course, rumoured moments of mutual tension between the two helmsmen but nothing has come out to shake the ship thus far. Tsogwane could become the oldest President to hold office in Botswana’s history in 2028 at 68 years.
Those close to him say that’s not a problem because he still has more stamina and energy. If Tsogwane’s career has demonstrated anything, it is that one should underestimate him at their own peril.
With the changing political dynamics, there is no obvious successor to this presidential role, so Tsogwane could one day wake up to a horrible nightmare where he is not chosen as the next President. There is the biggest achievement, waking up as President one day. With people forgetting up to 95% of all dreams shortly after waking up, Tsogwane is currently the person with a higher dream recall. Whether he dreams in colour or in black and white, dreaming about taking an oath of office is surely one dream he cannot forget.