More first-timers as political underdogs seek to defy odds
Spira Tlhankane | Monday May 20, 2024 06:00
The upcoming polls in October will be an acid test for veterans. The demand for newcomers is higher with the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) primaries popularly known as Bulela Ditswe having attracted about 90 aspirants who lack prior experience in elective office. Whether they will fare better against experienced candidates in the primaries is a story for another day, but the numbers of aspirants who have shown interest in both Parliament and wards show a substantial uptick in the number of inexperienced aspiring candidates.
It is not just the ruling party but the opposition outfit Botswana Congress Party (BCP) has also confirmed 54 of its parliamentary candidates showed a strong appetite for political amateurs, with around half of their candidates having never held office before. About 23 confirmed candidates out of the 54 are first-time candidates. Most of the candidates are experts in their own fields but when it comes to the dynamic game of politics, most have never sought public office before.
After leaving the opposition coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) recently, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) is also on a mission to field candidates in various constituencies and newcomers are dominating, especially in the primaries. About 16 aspiring candidates including confirmed candidates are first entrants who are new in the political circles and are looking to outperform candidates with elected experience.
The Botswana National Front (BNF), a founding member of the UDC, has not held primaries in some of its allocated constituencies but so far about six confirmed candidates are new entrants and even voters during the primary elections elected more and more candidates who have not served in government.
In an interview, political commentator Adam Mfundisi, feels that the surge in candidates reflects economic and financial hardship faced by people in Botswana. He was quick to indicate that people are seeking employment opportunities in politics. “Some of these people are failures in socio-economic life hence viewing politics as the sure route to richness and fame. Political corruption motivates opportunists to enter the political space to glory and enrichment,” he said. Mfundisi added that Botswana does not have a vibrant middle class, therefore, politics remains the only viable conduit to middle class status as well as upper class.
“Therefore, it is not amazing that there is an upsurge in candidates standing for political office. Newcomers into primary elections as well as national ones show that the odds are stacked against them. Those on post will invoke incumbency advantage to fend off newcomers. Politics in Botswana has become a commodity subjected to an auction process where the highest bidder succeeds,” he pointed out. The UB lecturer also opined that politics has been monetised and has become extremely expensive for new entrants and opposition parties. He said politics has been commercialised hence too demanding on candidates in terms of money, energy, time, and personnel. “First-time candidates will be hard-hit and if they fail to win, they will be subjected to indebtedness, poverty, and delinquency,” he added. The UB lecturer concluded that from past experiences, the unpredictable happens where the underdogs trample the old guards in spite of the latter’s advantage.
Speaking of underdogs, it is often the case where voters identify with the underdog narrative and root for someone who rises to the challenge and causes an upset by pulling off the unthinkable. In the past, either in primaries and national polls, underdogs have triumphed against mammoth odds to leave an indelible mark in the chronicles of history.
Another political analyst Dr Sethunya Mosime said politics in Africa, specifically Botswana, have always been underdog-friendly. She added that in every election new entrants are a given because people who had been holding their cards close to their chests because of their jobs in the civil service eventually decide to quit and join politics. She said a trend she has not seen in Botswana is where new parties are making headlines compared to old brands. Mosime added that people have been afraid of change due to the fear of uncertainty but at the same time they are tired of things remaining the same.
“People are hungry for something that will make them excited to wake up in the morning. There is a lot of room for underdogs even outside the political parties to come and disrupt the status quo and change the country from business as usual,” she pointed out.
Mosime also said the new brigade of young emergent parties that has been changing the political landscape uses social media landscape because it is relatively cheap. She said candidates use a different narrative than the usual promise of hampers. He said what makes campaigns expensive is that politicians do not spend money on the message but rather on bribery. Mosime said social media and having a message that resonates with everyday people is what can make an underdog with little money have traction.
Looking at the surge in the number of first-time entrants, this election could produce an awe-inspiring and astounding underdog tale, which will evoke emotions of nerviness, thrill and delight. Among big names and kingmakers, a handful of long-shot candidates will emerge and push their way into the electoral arena. The veterans, better-funded and more-endorsed could lose to the inexperienced who thrive on the anti-establishment style to attract voters. Other political scientists have observed that changes are driven by campaign fundraising, voter attitudes, political rhetoric and this is said to have lessened the advantages that veteran candidates have long had, such as campaign proficiency, high local name recognition and established finance networks.