BDP invades Palapye, Serowe
Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Friday June 7, 2024 11:01
The strategy is to saturate the villages with red to assert their presence in these former strongholds now held by the opposition Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) and the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). The BDP lost these areas to the UDC in the 2019 General Election after former president Ian Khama joined the opposition BPF. Khama commands significant respect in these areas due to his chieftainship. It is uncertain if the BDP can reclaim support there, given Khama's continued alignment with the opposition. Currently, these areas are under the BPF and the UDC control.
One question that arises is whether the BDP will win the area or if their efforts this weekend will increase or decrease the 2019 General Election margins. Historically, chiefs have commanded significant respect from their tribes, who have never voted against them. For example, in the 2014 General Election, Barolong voted with their chief for the Umbrella for Democratis Change (UDC). Similarly, in 2019, Bakgatla voted with their chief, Mmusi Kgafela, and Bangwaketse once voted for the Botswana National Front (BNF) because of Kgosi Bathoen. Will history be repeated? The BDP, as the ruling party, has managed to divide the royal family. As part of its strategy, Khama's cousin, Foster Seretse, will contest the Serowe West constituency under the BDP banner to win the area. However, many are watching to see if this move will bring change or backfire.
The constituency Seretse is contesting is known as Kgosing. Currently, the Bangwato have been protesting their denied access to their Kgotla and activities in their area being handled by outsiders, causing tension in the village. Another contentious issue is the legal appointment of Khama's regent, as Khama opposes Kgosi Serogala Seretse and wants a regent he can control. Additionally, Khama has demanded properties around the Kgotla area. Meanwhile, one cannot rule out the possibility of the BDP winning some of these areas, despite the opposition's substantial margins. If both the UDC and BPF contest, it might impact the opposition's performance, allowing the BDP to maintain its numbers. For the BDP to win, which is still questionable, it must work extra hard and change its strategy, especially how it addresses Khama's issues in those areas. Many believe its star rallies over the weekend could either increase its margins or cause its structures to collapse again in Serowe. Many believe the party should employ diplomatic strategies to appeal to the people in Serowe, or else it risks becoming a thing of the past in those areas.
This is how the BDP and opposition parties performed in the 2019 General Election in those respective areas; Serowe North: BPF 5, 394, BDP 4, 356 and UDC 1, 656, Serowe West: BPF 4, 394, BDP 2, 405 and UDC 749, Serowe South: BPF 4, 653, BDP 4, 273 and UDC 2, 362. While at Palapye constituency UDC got 5,582 votes, the BDP and the BPF got 5, 252 and 1, 806 respectively. Statistical evidence clearly indicates that if opposition parties do not cooperate, the BDP stands a chance to win those constituencies, underscoring its strong base. It is not a given that the areas are a free ticket for both the BPF and the UDC. What worked for the opposition parties in the 2019 General Election may not necessarily work in the 2024 General Election. Therefore, opposition parties, like the BDP, will have to work hard to retain those constituencies. In an interview with the BDP secretary-general, Kavis Kario, on Wednesday, he said the reason why they are holding star rallies at Palapye and Serowe is for mobilisation and recruitment of new members. “We don’t want to leave any stone unturned in Serowe and Palapye. Our goal is victory, nothing less,” Kario said.
The party SG said the party did not performed well during the 2019 General Election, therefore the BDP is going all out in those areas to reclaim them. Kario said the other reason why they are going to Serowe is for them to re-energise some of the members who have not been active, so that they start to be active. He said the central region has been the BDP stronghold since independence. In addition, he said the other objective, which they want to achieve, is for the party President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s message to be heard. The BDP, however, knows very well that it has only itself to blame for having been absent from a constituency that has proven to have drifted from their hands after many years. The party might struggle to win back the Serowe-based constituencies given a number of issues that do not sit well with Bangwato in Serowe and surrounding villages.