How climate change fuels terrorism in Africa

Solly Rakgomo | Monday September 9, 2024 09:38

These changing conditions create vulnerabilities that terrorist groups exploit for recruitment and tactical advantage, deepening instability and perpetuating cycles of violence in affected regions. Terrorist organisations like Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and ISIS affiliates have entrenched themselves in various regions of Africa, each exploiting local grievances and environmental challenges to expand their influence. Boko Haram, primarily active in Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, capitalises on economic hardships and resource conflicts exacerbated by environmental degradation. Al-Shabaab, operating mainly in Somalia and parts of Kenya, leverages drought-induced displacement and food insecurity to recruit fighters and extort communities. Meanwhile, ISIS affiliates, such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), thrive in the Sahel’s fragile environment, using smuggling routes and ungoverned spaces to conduct operations and destabilise governments.

Environmental ruin and economic despair is the nexus fueling terrorist recruitment in the Sahel and other regions. According to Langel, the Sahel is experiencing some of the fastest rates of desertification globally, with 80% of the land degraded and a 40% decline in annual rainfall since the 1970s. The environmental degradation, exacerbated by prolonged droughts, has drastically reduced agricultural yields. He avers that for instance, in Niger, agricultural productivity has dropped by more than 20% over the past 20 years due to soil erosion and reduced rainfall. As a result, this scarcity fuels competition over dwindling resources, leading to conflicts between communities. This scenario offers an opportunity for terrorist groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab to exploit these tensions, offering protection or resources to gain the loyalty of desperate communities, thus expanding their influence.

As livelihoods collapse due to environmental degradation, many people, especially young men, find themselves with limited economic opportunities. For example, Langel says unemployment in the Sahel region, particularly among the youth, is alarmingly high, with rates exceeding 30% in some areas. Terrorist organisations then leverage this desperation by offering financial incentives, food, and a sense of purpose, making it easier to recruit individuals who might otherwise resist involvement in violence. This economic desperation is a significant factor in recruitment, as terrorist groups leverage this desperation.

This trend has been marked by a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) study in 2023, where it was highlighted that 40% of recruits to extremist groups in Africa cited economic reasons, including unemployment and poverty, as the primary motivation for joining. Climate change-induced environmental disasters have displaced millions of people across Africa. In Somalia, for example, over 2.9 million people are internally displaced due to a combination of conflict and environmental stress, making them vulnerable to recruitment by Al-Shabaab. These internally displaced persons (IDPs) often find themselves in under-resourced and overcrowded camps, which become fertile grounds for terrorist recruitment.

In the Lake Chad Basin, Boko Haram has been known to recruit youngsters from these IDP camps, preying on their vulnerabilities, offering security, food, or even the promise of a return to normalcy in exchange for allegiance. Displacement also disrupts traditional social structures and community support networks, leaving individuals isolated and more susceptible to radicalisation. Without the stabilising influence of their home communities, displaced persons are more easily radicalised, particularly when they are targeted by charismatic recruiters. A study by the International Crisis Group in 2022 found that displaced populations in conflict zones, particularly in Nigeria and the Sahel, are up to three times more likely to be targeted for recruitment by terrorist organisations than non-displaced populations.

This then has severe implications for regional stability and security. The inability of states to effectively respond to environmental crises often leads to diminished authority in affected regions. In Mali, for instance, up to 50% of the country’s territory is effectively outside government control, largely due to the influence of terrorist groups exploiting environmental stress and state weakness. These groups fill the power vacuum, presenting themselves as alternative authorities capable of providing for basic needs, further undermining state legitimacy and complicating counterterrorism efforts. The interplay between environmental stressors and terrorism can also prolong conflicts, as resource scarcity and displacement create conditions that perpetuate violence. The Sahel’s environmental conditions have given rise to 41 non-state armed groups in Mali alone. This proliferation of armed groups makes it increasingly difficult for governments and international organisations to achieve lasting peace, as the root causes of instability are continually reinforced by environmental degradation.

Addressing the nexus between environmental changes and terrorism requires integrated approaches that combine environmental management with security strategies. One critical area is investing in sustainable agricultural practices, improving water management, and enhancing resilience to climate change alongside traditional counterterrorism measures. For example, the Great Green Wall initiative aims to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land across the Sahel by 2030, directly addressing some of the environmental drivers of conflict. Strengthening community resilience through local governance, economic support, and social cohesion is also essential. Empowering communities to adapt to environmental changes can reduce the recruitment pool for terrorist organisations and the operational advantages these groups gain from environmental crises.

Furthermore, integrating environmental considerations into counterterrorism strategies is crucial for long-term success. Governments and international organisations must recognise that environmental degradation is not merely a backdrop to Africa’s security challenges but a central factor that shapes the recruitment strategies and operational tactics of terrorist organisations. By addressing both the environmental and security dimensions in a holistic manner, efforts to combat terrorism can become more sustainable and effective.

In conclusion, Africa’s environmental challenges, marked by degradation, resource scarcity, and displacement, are increasingly linked to security issues, with terrorist organisations exploiting these vulnerabilities for recruitment and expansion. Addressing this issue requires a holistic approach that integrates environmental management with security strategies. Investing in sustainable agriculture, improving water management, and strengthening community resilience are key to addressing the root causes of instability. By aligning environmental and security efforts, Africa can enhance its resilience against both threats, promoting lasting peace and stability across the continent.