Red Cross on elections ‘red alert’
Innocent Selatlhwa | Tuesday October 22, 2024 09:23
Botswana Red Cross Society (BRCS) secretary-general Kutlwano Mukokomani has confirmed the authenticity of the report in circulation about their plans. They are expecting about P2 million (CHF 128,636) from the mother body in Switzerland.
DREF remains the IFRC’s fastest and most efficient way of providing immediate assistance to communities affected by floods, disease epidemics, social unrest, forced migration and other disasters and crises.
The Botswana General Election, scheduled for October 30, 2024, will determine the composition of the 13th National Assembly and elect the next President of Botswana. The key political contenders according to the report include the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), and the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).
“These elections are taking place amidst significant controversy, largely due to ongoing tensions between former President Ian Khama and the current President, Masisi. This political rivalry has created an atmosphere of instability as the elections approach,” they state.
Key developments in this conflict were then listed including how Masisi took over from Khama and what happened to date Khama returning to Botswana to campaign for the BPF.
“In 2024, additional tensions arose between the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), resulting in a split that has further fragmented the opposition. This division highlights the fragile nature of opposition coalitions in Botswana and suggests a potentially contentious electoral landscape. Given these dynamics, the upcoming elections are set to be pivotal, with the risk of political unrest and challenges to the democratic process,” they state.
On why National Society is acting now and what criteria are used to launch this operation, DREF states that Botswana's 2024 elections are set against a backdrop of political tensions, economic uncertainty, and social inequality.
“Whilst historically celebrated for its strong democratic institutions and steady economic growth, recent developments suggest the country is at a critical juncture. The dominance of the BDP and the economic reliance on diamond revenue have led to rising political challenges and economic vulnerabilities, particularly highlighted by factionalism within the BDP, fragmentation of the opposition parties and declining demand for natural diamonds,” they state.
They reckon that North-West has established itself as a stronghold for opposition parties, more especially BCP since 2014, and the opposition won the parliamentary seats for the 2019 elections in this region with BCP under the UDC, and the 2024 general elections are anticipated to be more interesting in the sense that BPC separated from the UDC due to feuds amongst the BCP and BNF leaderships as the two parties were part of the UDC.
“Cities and areas where opposition parties are gaining ground, particularly in regions like the Central District and North-West, may experience heightened political tension, especially given the ongoing voter registration controversies. These regions could be classified as high-risk areas in terms of potential electoral disputes or unrest. In contrast, traditionally UDC and BDP strong areas like Gaborone may also face high or Medium risk, as this will be impacted by the broader political struggles, especially in light of the Khama- Masisi feud and the political rivalry of the two parties,” states the report. According to the report, Goodhope-Mmathete Constituency is one of the potential hotspots for social unrest following the decision of the BDP central committee on September 23rd 2024 to remove him as parliamentary candidate for the constituency.
Dr Edwin Dikoloti who is the former Health Minister, made an urgent application before the Gaborone High Court. He was challenging the decision of the BDP central committee to replace him with Peggy Serame, the current Minister of Finance, who he defeated in the party primary elections. Dikoloti has since registered as an independent candidate under the slogan 'Wena Beulah' ahead of the 2024 General Election. He was also fired as the Minister of Health which led to him resigning as a member of the BDP. Moreover, the report states that the voter registration process has already been marred by controversy, with opposition parties accusing the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) of lacking transparency for not publicising the voters' roll. “This issue is particularly critical as it influences public confidence in the election process, further supporting the need for a timeline of events to ensure clarity,” they state. The report fears potential for disturbances and conflicts between supporters of the BPF and the BDP presents significant challenges to the safety and well-being of citizens.
“The ruling BDP is also under pressure from a fragmented opposition, primarily the UDC, BCP and the BPF. Recent developments have heightened concerns about social stability, with economic issues such as inflation, high unemployment, and income inequality contributing to public dissatisfaction. Additionally, the rivalry between President Masisi and former President Ian Khama, who supports the BPF, could further escalate tensions. Despite these challenges, analysts predict that the BDP is likely to retain power due to the opposition's difficulties in unifying effectively,” they state. The report further states that Botswana Red Cross Society conducted risk assessments in the hotspots of political unrest, particularly the major cities and towns, in order to evaluate the current political situation, the needs of the vulnerable communities and to gain an understanding of the perceptions at community level. The survey findings underscore significant health risks during the election period, primarily heat-related complications (60.0% of responses). Concerns about crowd control and physical injuries were also noted, with 15.0% fearing crowd-related issues. Despite 53.3% recalling no prior incidents needing first aid, those who did mentioned fainting and heat strokes. Respondents called for medical personnel and mobile clinics at polling stations, highlighting the need for accessible first aid resources. Additional requests included drinking water, and support for vulnerable populations, emphasizing the urgency for enhanced health services during elections. The report states that as political tensions rise and the risk of election-related unrest increases, proactive resource mobilization is essential to ensure that necessary first aid and psychological first aid services are available for rapid response to emergencies. “The urgency to act arises from the heightened risk of clashes between BPF and BDP supporters. Both parties have substantial followings, and as elections approach, the intensity of their campaigns is expected to increase. Although Botswana's electoral processes are generally peaceful, history indicates that protests can occur, particularly in politically divided areas. If tensions escalate, risks of physical injuries, stampedes, and general unrest could emerge, underscoring the need for immediate intervention,” they state. They further state that Election periods also present unique health risks that require early preparation. One major concern is the long queues voters often face, particularly in hot weather, which can lead to dehydration, heatstroke, or heat exhaustion, especially among the elderly, individuals with pre-existing health conditions, and pregnant women. With elections scheduled for October, the warm weather in Botswana may exacerbate these health risks. Without adequate preparation, incidents of fainting and fatigue could overwhelm local health services. Another significant health concern during elections is low blood sugar (hypoglycemia).
“Voters, particularly those with diabetes, may struggle to manage their symptoms while waiting in long lines without access to food. Without snacks or quick energy sources, individuals may experience dizziness, confusion, and, in severe cases, loss of consciousness. The BRCS can play a vital role in addressing these issues by ensuring that trained volunteers are present at polling stations with first aid kits that include glucose tablets, water, and other essential supplies,” they state. According to the report, the upcoming general elections present significant challenges that have prompted the Botswana Red Cross Society (BRCS) to mobilize resources to augment government efforts in elections preparedness. “With high political tensions between major political parties, particularly the BDP and the BPF, as well as the UDC, the atmosphere going into the elections is one of heightened sensitivity. This has led to concerns about potential disturbances and violence, particularly in densely populated areas such as Gaborone, Serowe, and Francistown, which have strong party support bases. The scope of potential disturbances includes physical altercations between opposing political factions, protests, demonstrations, and localized violence in areas where tensions are highest.
Gaborone, Maun, Serowe, and Francistown are of particular concern due to their large populations and their historical association with political activism. Goodhope-Mmathete Constituency is one of the potential hotspots for social unrest following the decision to remove Dikoloti from BDP candidacy,” they state.
Based on the population 2022 census of Gaborone (approximately 244,107), the report states that Central District (approximately 201,775), North-West (approximately 193,725) and North-East (approximately 102,444), it is estimated that a substantial portion of these communities may require medical assistance during election-related events. In order to reduce the risk, the BRCS is preparing to provide assistance to at least 10% of the population in these areas, translating into roughly 74,205 people who may need first aid or emergency support. “In addition to the risk of injuries from disturbances, there are other health risks associated with elections in Botswana. Long queues at polling stations, often in extreme heat, present a danger of dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heatstroke. Many voters, especially the elderly, people with disabilities, and those with pre-existing conditions, may struggle withstanding in line for long periods without adequate access to water, food, or shade. These conditions can lead to fainting, dizziness, low blood sugar, and other health complications.
To address these risks, BRCS plans to provide 275 first aid kits, 2 mobile clinics, and 275 trained volunteers who will be deployed across the three priority areas. This will ensure that immediate medical care is available at polling stations and other key locations. The focus will be on providing care for women, children, the elderly, and people with disabilities, who are the most vulnerable in such environments,” they state.