Final salvo fired in local "power struggle"
Mbongeni Mguni | Friday October 18, 2013 17:11
If the state was a cat, it would purr. Two key events in April and August have helped quiet down a six-year din from critics indignant at the policy shortcomings that kicked off the electricity crisis in 2008. In April, government floated a 300 megawatt (MW) tender for the expansion of the Morupule B power station by a further two 150MW units, following this up in August, with another for a 300MW to be fuelled independently and located anywhere in Botswana.
These two new facilities are expected to start pumping power into the local grid by 2016 and be complete the next year, marking a new era of futurist policymaking in the country's energy development arena. Six years ago, the words 'futurist policymaking' were the opposite of thoughts on critics' minds who slated public policy makers, particularly the then Energy Minister Ponatshego Kedikilwe for a myopic energy strategy that failed to anticipate the regional power crunch of 2008.
The critics, who included legislators, civic leaders and captains of business, faulted government for having dragged its feet to boost the country's own generation, preferring instead to rely on the then cheaper power imports from South Africa.The 30MW Selebi Phikwe power station, which was decommissioned years before the power crisis and reportedly sold at below its carrying value, was cited as an example of government's lackadaisical approach to domestic generation in preference of Eskom imports.
This philosophy, the critics said, was the reason laid plans for Morupule B were implemented slowly, why the power crisis appeared to take policymakers by surprise and why the economy was ill-prepared for it. It was pointed out that the Botswana Power Corporation figures showed that the country's reliance on power imports was allowed to increase from 51% in 2000 to about 80% in 2008 as new generation plants were viewed as a needless expense.
Government was also accused of ignoring the rapid growth rates in electricity demand when compared with static generation capacity growth during the years before the blackouts. During that time, the Morupule A was crumbling due to old age, with its plant availability dropping to 84% in 2008 and 30% in 2012. The now 27-year-old workhorse was finally suspended last August.
After the lights first went out in 2008, households and businesses began a six-year nightmare punctuated by haphazard load shedding, debates over BPC's legal culpability, failed deals such as the 40MW Zimbabwe plan, a BPC billing crisis and the general erosion of living standards.
Government took the condemnation on its chin, having quietly but hastily arranged funding for the 600MW Morupule B and subsequently finalising emergency diesel facilities, while also securing limited but critical support from Eskom and the region. This policy paradigm shift also became evident in the frequent production of long-range power supply/demand forecasts by BPC and energy ministry executives at every opportunity, sending the 'lesson learnt' message to households and businesses.
One of the latest such forecasts suggests that the policy paradigm shift is on course to deliver at the very least, an energy self-sufficient economy by 2020 and at best, an energy-exporting nation by the same time. According to the BPC's forecasts, the country's peak electricity demand is likely to reach 902MW in 2020, to be supplied by net capacity 912MW from the expanded Morupule B and the refurbished Morupule A. This will be complemented by net capacity of 264MW from the Independent Power Producer station currently out on tender and another 90MW from the Orapa power peaking plant.
The corporation estimates that in 2020, Botswana will have excess power supply of 364MW and in fact, an export market will be required as early as 2016 should all the projects in the pipeline come to fruition.
Besides the two 300MW tenders, due for adjudication by June, government's new 'futuristic policymaking' will also shine through a 100MW solar power plant planned for 2017/18, 75MW of Renewable Feed In Tariffs and the conversion of the 90MW Orapa plant to a 24-hour coal bed methane-fuelled facility. When complete, the 100MW Concentrated Thermal Solar Power (CTSP) plant will be one of Africa's largest, with Botswana joining a handful of countries on the continent with such facilities. Going forward, another 5kW to 5MW of electricity will be produced with government support through small-scale solar and bio-energy projects currently at various stages of feasibility.
Together with Orapa's conversion from its current diesel power to CBM, government's focus on the clean energy is expected to result in more concessional lending rates from enviro-conscious financiers who have been hesitant to put money in fossil fuel energy. This year's floating of the 300MW tenders, coupled with the July resolution of what had become the annual load shedding season, has left a once-battered government looking like the cat that got the cream.