Putin is a Chief suspect in the downing of MH17
Richard Moleofe | Friday August 1, 2014 15:17
From the very beginning, the finger of blame points toward Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia who holds the position of president the second time around. The investigation to determine what brought down this Malaysian passenger plane has begun in earnest and it is still in the early days to determine the actual cause without blinking.
However, the Americans have already pointed a finger at Russia by extension because the weapon used to commission this crime is according to them definitely Russian made and supplied.
Russia has gone on record to emphatically deny any involvement in the tragedy and instead they have pointed a finger at Kiev accusing them of being perpetrators. Russia has gone to great lengths in trying to convince the world that Kiev had intended to bring down a presidential plane used by Putin. Indeed the similarities of the two planes are so striking to the point of colour.
While watching it on RT, the Russian television network available in this part of the world, an uninformed mind would be tempted to believe the conspiracy theory brought forth by the Russians.
The question here is; how are the investigators going to arrive at the root of the problem and as an end result provide unbiased answers? Well, they say in war truth is always the first casualty and this is certainly true in the case of MH17. The Americans have not hesitated to point a finger at Russia on this matter and I will later in this piece give a full account of the American position when I discus human and signal intelligence.
Putin has always regarded Russia as his own real estate and this is why he can come and go and come back again as president of the country as though he was president of a charity organisation that was choked off from receiving donor funding after his departure.
Hence the need for his return and take over the reins of leadership. Under Putin, the Russian media has been used to spread fear and state propaganda.
It is used as an instrument for political control as at the moment it is used to drum up a conspiracy theory that CIA was behind the downing of the Malaysian plane. The first conspiracy theory pointed at the Ukrainian government. Clearly the Russians have had their share of frustration with a complete turnabout made by Ukraine as the latter chose a closer relationship with the West as opposed to their immediate neighbour to the east. And this the root of the frustration by Moscow.
And how can intelligence help to unravel the mystery of the downing of this aircraft? In the intelligence world there are two key methods of data collection. Human and signal intelligence will in this case provide critical information that will assist the investigators to reach and unbiased conclusion on the matter. It is alleged that the terrorists downed the plane with the assistance of the Russians with a battery of BUK missiles. Human intelligence reports that after the plane came down, a truck carrying the missile launcher was seen heading for the Russian border with one of its four missiles missing. This was documented through a photographic process.
On the ground, it has become very clear through human intelligence that the plane was brought down by a missile as puncture marks on the fuselage are consistent with a missile detonation. At least there are two things that we all agree on, the plane was shot down. The question that remains is by who and why. But in this case signal intelligence will provide a clear verdict.
The two black boxes have been recovered and handed over to the Malaysians by the Russian supported and aided terrorist rebels. That’s the one positive thing we need to congratulate the rebels for. I for one never thought they would ever extend such a gesture in the midst of this tragedy.
They say the voice recorder was damaged but its memory is still intact and the most positive sign is that there is no evident sign of tempering. From the initial evidence gleaned from these instruments, it surely points to the use of an explosive device that immediately caused decompression on the plane through the dispersion of shrapnel upon contact.
The US government released satellite images that it claims is further proof of Moscow agitating. The US made such claims within hours of the crush.
From the available signal intelligence available on the day of the crash, through satellite observation a ground to air missile was fired at the same time Malaysian MH17 was flying over the area. The missile reached the same altitude of MH17 before it was lost on the radar and assuming the device had exploded and dissipated. US intelligence picked up the missile being turned on. Then the vertical ascension of the missile could easily be picked by satellite. The trajectory of the missile clearly shows that it was going for MH17.
Putin himself, being former boss of the KGB, is the right man to use the tools of the trade to spread claims and counter claims contrary to what the rest of the world sees as truth. Putin is known to be unpredictable and defiant as well as amazingly manipulative.
He is a typical spy boss and take my word for that. But with overwhelming human and signal intelligence available in this case, there is no room or stage for cat and mouse tricks. Some sources in the US intelligence have come up with their latest findings that a ground to air missile shot down Flight MH17 from a separatist area in Ukraine with a Russian BUK missile system. A senior US source, Josh Earnest who is the White House Press Secretary has backed the claims.
This information is further corroborated by a UK intelligence body which says the rebels may have had the BUK system in their hands from as early as July 14. But what they are not sure of is if Moscow had direct involvement in pulling the trigger. Could the rebels and their backers be involved in a cleanup operation to hide the evidence of the missile within the crushed site? Heaven only knows!
Richard Moleofe is a retired
Military Officer*