BDP on slippery ground

Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Tuesday August 12, 2014 13:40

BDP for go: The ruling party is hoping yo increase its parliamentary and council seats

A Mmegi analysis shows that the BDP might be safe in only 27 of the constituencies they won in the last general elections.

In the 2009 general elections, of the 45 constituencies the ruling party won, 18 of them were by a slim margin, according to an Independent Electoral Commission report.

For the BDP to remain in power, it must win 29 constituencies or more.

The 18 constituencies include Tati West, Francistown East, Francistown South, Bobirwa, Selibe-Phikwe East, Tswapong south, Shoshong, South East South, Mogoditshane, Kweneng South East, Letlhakeng East, Letlhakeng West, Gaborone North, Gaborone South, Gaborone West North, Molepolole North, Francistown South, Boteti North and Kgatleng West.

In 2009, the opposition won 11, eight of them with a tight margin. Gaborone Central, Okavango and Kgatleng East are the only three constituencies that the opposition hada much greater margin against the BDP.

BDP campaign manager, Alec Seametso, however insisted that the ruling party was poised to increase the margin where it previously won with difficulty.

“We are going to win this elections with a bigger margin, even in constituencies where we hadn’t done well in the 2009 elections. Remember, our target as a party is to win all 57 constituencies.

“As I speak, we are on the ground explaining to people the importance of voting BDP. We are correcting what we could have done wrong in 2009,” Seametso said.

He said they are getting a positive response from people from their house-to-house campaigns.

Seametso said they will double their effort in constituencies that are currently held by the opposition parties to ensure that they win them back.

And they have realised that some of their members in 2009 did not vote because they were at the lands ploughing.

“We have kept a data base of our members and it will help us to trace them to know where they are,” he said.

University of Botswana political analyst, Leonard Sesa believes the BDP will win the elections but with a lower number of constituencies.

“I think from the 18 constituencies they won with a slim margin, they might be able to retain nine or less.

The opposition parties are also targeting those constituencies. Anything is possible and we should not be shocked by the outcome of the results,” Sesa said.

He said political environment has also changed since 2009 to date.

This is how the BDP performed in 2009 in those 18 constituencies

Tati West

BDP 4,277

BPP 3,471

BAM 489

Francistown East

BDP 3,698

BPP 113

BCP 3,130

Bobirwa

BDP 5,899

BCP 5,059

Selibe-Phikwe East

BDP 3,717

BCP 3,170

BNF 701

IND 135

Tswapong South

BDP 5,183

BCP 4,175

BNF 750

Shoshong

BDP 4,820

BNF 3,203

BCP 750

Letlhakeng East

BDP 3,992

BNF 3,967

Letlhakeng West

BDP 3,826

BNF 3,792

South East South

BDP 6,084

BCP 5,739

BNF 762

IND 117

Boteti North

BDP 4,790

BNF 3,748

BCP 459

Kgatleng West

BDP 5, 493

BNF 4,817

BCP 2,672

IND 565

Gaborone North

BDP 3,741

BCP 3,498

BNF 1,726

Gaborone South

BDP 2,853

BNF 2,361

BCP 1,726

Gaborone West North

BDP 5,814

BCP 4,227

BNF 3,227

MELS 49

Mogoditshane

BDP 3,525

BCP 2,570

BNF 1,865

IND 314

MELS 85

IND 28

Kweneng South East

BDP 5,415

BCP3, 602

BNF 1,758

Francistown South

BDP 4,0 24

BCP3, 546

BPP 289

BNF 280

Molepolole North

BDP 5,595

BNF 4,914

BCP 271

Kanye North

BDP 7,004

BNF 5,601

BCP 309