Local millers wary of SA armyworm attack
Isaac Pinielo | Friday February 3, 2017 14:52
According to the association’s chairman, Nkosi Mwaba the new season harvest is under threat of infestation by what is suspected to be the fall armyworm, which is reported to be rampant in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi.
“It has also reportedly made its way into South Africa as reported in the Limpopo, Free State and North West areas,” he said.
He noted that this is a new type of worm to South Africa and the region, which originates from the US, and that it is difficult to tell at this stage to what extent it may affect the maize crop.
Depending on the extent of damage, he said, this may have an impact on South African maize exports as well as the projected commodity pricing trend.
“We are hopeful that the rains will continue in the following months for the late harvests and that the armyworm infestations do not place the crop estimate harvests into a deficit,” Mwaba said.
In the event of a surplus, he said they may see excess white maize being shifted to animal feed.
He said Botswana will receive its full supply of maize from South Africa in this scenario, noting that the country consumes just over 100,000 tonnes of maize per annum.
He further pointed out that South Africa is projecting a good maize harvest (surplus crop) due to the good rains received this season.
In 2015, the country experienced its worst drought since 1992 affecting its maize crop. Maize had to be imported from as far places like Mexico and the United States to augment regional demand including Botswana’s needs.
Botswana millers import up to 95% of their grain requirements from South Africa. In the past two years, due to the crippling drought in South Africa and the region, local millers were forced to import their raw material needs from as far away as Mexico and the USA.
Although there was no shortage of maize, the cost of importation as well as the weakening rand at the time saw the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) prices soar up to R5,000 per tonne (P3,896). This resulted in local maize prices going up over 30% during the course of 2016.
“The outlook for 2017 is much more positive with the continuing rains making it possible for a surplus maize crop,” Mwaba said.
He, however, stated that the new season crop is only expected to be available between May and July 2017 with maize prices expected to drop as low as P2,400 per tonne or less on SAFEX.
“We have already started to see some form of relief on maize pricing, but the more significant impact will be seen in the second quarter of the year when the new season crop is in the market,” he said.