When numbers don�t make sense
Isaac Pinielo | Friday August 18, 2017 15:46
While some people see this as a welcome development to the country, whose unemployment rate once hit a record high of 26.2% in 2008, others question the figure or its significance, saying it might not reflect the realities of Botswana’s job market.
On the ground, it seems that job prospects for university graduates have declined, with fewer and fewer people finding full-time employment after completing higher education.
Even as the country provides free quality education for its youth, it is, however, battling with high levels of unemployment as the job market cannot absorb all the graduates.
Regrettably, many colleges and universities in the country produce thousands of graduates every year, but with no prospects of securing employment.
A university education was often seen as a reliable pathway to a good career and a comfortable life, but this pathway seems to be crumbling with ongoing weakness in the job market. SB deputy statistician, Burton Mguni acknowledges that although the country is dependent on diamonds as the driver of the economy, the diamond industry is not a great employment creator.
With the sluggish economic growth, many companies are retrenching as opposed to employing, which results in many of the young graduates roaming the streets with no jobs.
Times have become very tough for young graduates, leading to desperation without a source of livelihood.
Last year, the issue of joblessness nearly got out of hand when a group of unemployed youth, lobbying for unemployment to be addressed, protested in front of Parliament buildings with placards and dressed in their graduation gowns, until it was violently broken down by the police.
This shows the extent of hopelessness and desperation that has been infused in young people by the state of unemployment in the country. Official data shows that unemployment rate for the youth, aged between 15 and 35 years, was estimated at 25.2%.
The majority of the unemployed population was highest for persons with Junior Certificate (JC), at 39.4%, followed by those with Senior Secondary School and Primary education at 22.8% and 14.8% respectively.
The unemployed with university or college education was estimated at 11.4%.
Some labour academicians are of the view that the country’s formal employment data is inaccurate due to the inclusion of Ipelegeng, a public works programme that serves as a social safety net to cushion against the rigours of youth unemployment.
Employees of Ipelegeng do not get the same benefits compared to the formally employed and some believe their wages are not even close to being apt to be classified for formal employment.
Currently, the programme, which provides short-term employment support and relief, targets at engaging a total of 50,000 beneficiaries per month, accounting for 6.2% of the employment figures.
Its inclusion in the employment figures is usually criticised, as it is believed to be distorting the true picture of employment.
“When looking at the figures, people would think the unemployment rate is going down while in actual fact it is on the contrary,” an economist told BusinessWeek.
Having emerged as the main driver of overall growth in employment, SB argues that Ipelegeng’s inclusion is within the defined parameters of employment of the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
According to the ILO, employment is described as the engagement of a person over a period exceeding seven days, which justifies SB’s inclusion of the programme under the formal sector.
Adding to the skepticism in the country’s unemployment figures, is a country report recently released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which states that despite robust growth, unemployment and income inequality in Botswana have remained high.
According to the IMF, employment in Botswana has shown little responsiveness to changes in economic activity.
In addition, it says during the period 1992–2016, the correlations between unemployment rate and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and between employment growth and real GDP growth have been quite low. It says Botswana’s employment challenge is related to constraints in both the supply and the demand for labour. On the supply side, IMF says lack of skills in the labour force and skill mismatches have been the most serious challenge, compounded by an overly restrictive policy on permits for foreign workers and high wages in the public sector.
On the demand side, it asserts that a small domestic market, shortages of electricity and water, and barriers to set up and fund businesses have resulted in high costs and lack of profitable investment opportunities, effectively deterring entry of new businesses and employment creation.