The aftermath of Letlhakeng West

EDWARD MPOLOKA
Correspondent | Thursday April 18, 2013 00:00

 

Reportedly President Ian Khama commissioned an inquiry into the reasons the BDP had failed to retain the two wards. A few months earlier, the BDP had lost Sebele and Maboane wards to the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) and BNF. Unlike Tonota North and Mahalapye North by-elections whose outcomes were almost predictable because they are BDP strongholds, the stakes were high at Letlhakeng. In less than 10 years between 2004 and 2009, the constituency has changed hands at least twice between the BNF and the ruling party. No doubt the BDP foot soldiers were not going to disappoint their leader nor earn his wrath by losing the constituency especially after he had allegedly threatened action against those found culpable for the loss in Tumasera- Seleka and Mmathethe.

For the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), which consists of the BMD, BNF and Botswana Peoples Party (BPP), the Letlhakeng West constituency by-election provided an opportunity to begin the process of regime change. Significantly, with the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) throwing its weight behind the BNF and the Botswana Federation of Public Sector Unions (BOFEPUSU) openly campaigning for the opposition, the clock seemed to have gone back to the public servants' strike period in 2011 when the opposition, united in purpose, sang the regime change tune in unison with the workers union. UDC needed to win a constituency in order to prove it is a viable project. This was the third constituency by-election after Tonota North and Mahalapye West both of which the BDP retained.

With 600 members in the constituency according to its leaders, BOFEPUSU wanted to show the BDP led government they had the capacity to influence the direction of Botswana politics. A win by the UDC would have been sweet revenge for the union which had recently accused the BDP of manipulating the judiciary after losing two court cases to the government. Although some people downplayed the significance of the BCP, others took its offer to support the UDC seriously. In the Maboane ward by-election last year in the Letlhakeng West, the party polled 60 votes after campaigning for only two weeks.

There is no doubt that besides mere excitement, the constituency was always going to be won or lost on the availability of resources. Since 2009, there have been 18 ward by-elections and three parliamentary ones. Significantly, the ruling party retained all the three parliamentary by-elections. It is also worth noting that the BDP, with its retention record, has always faltered when more than one ward was involved in a by-election.

Those who think the BDP's strength has to do more with resources than policies often refer to the fact that the party has not lost a stand-alone by-election such as Moshawana, Dibete| Pallaroad, Tsholofelo South, Ikageleng Phase 1, Shashe Mooke, Mokoboxane, Lenganeng, Monarch West and Tshikinyega for example. But when the party lost Sebele (Block 8) ward in Gaborone, there were two by-elections at Mahalapye at the same time. When the BDP lost Maboane, their resources were stretched by another by-election in Metlojane. The opposition defeated the BDP at Tumasera-Seleka and Mmathethe when another by-election took place in Pilikwe which the ruling party retained.

However, the fact that the BDP won all the stand-alone by-elections but faltered whenever it was required to campaign in more than one ward might be an indication that its resources are not infinite after all. While it might be wrong for the BDP, especially cabinet ministers and the president to use public resources for partisan purposes as alleged, it is not clear whether any law has been contravened. Besides, surely, instead of crying ad infinitum, the opposition ought to get its act together by finding ways to capacitate themselves with resources. If the BDP can get friends who give them donations, the opposition should see it as an indictment on themselves if they cannot befriend business people either here or abroad unless of course the routine complaint is a political gimmick intended to draw sympathy from the voters.

Messaging is one of the biggest challenges facing the opposition parties. They must make sure their rhetoric is not only clearly packaged and convincing but that it is in consonance will their written policies. Their policy documents are not yet launched therefore not widely distributed even among the coordinators. So it is not clear which policies are sold to the voters during by-elections. For instance, both the BNF and BPP have it in black and white that under their rule, the unemployed would be given an allowance. Despite this, the voter might be left confused because the much-maligned Ipelegeng project, driven by the ruling party is an approximation of that principle save for the fact that the benefactors have to do manual works to be paid. Research shows that the people of Letlhakeng West are among the poorest in the country. Ironically, it is their poverty, which critics blame on the BDP government that the party deftly exploits to its advantage. There are reports, that for instance, during house-to-house visits, BDP foot soldiers passed applications forms around for various government empowerment schemes to the voters telling them that membership of the ruling party was a pre-requisite for the success of their applications.

It has been noted that, while government ministers and the president visited the constituency well before the by-election, opposition party leaders waited until the last minute. Three weeks before the by-election, Khama was in Ditshegwane and it rained in the area. Ogopoleng Lekgwere and Keeleletse Ditlhobolo, both of who attended the rally shared their interpretation of the timing of the rains. To them, it was not by coincidence that it rained on that day and time. 'There is no doubt that the rains are an endorsement of Ian Khama and the BDP by the gods themselves,' said Lekgwere. But where was the Boko magic, Motswaledi magic or Molapisi magic?

There are reports that the opposition camp was riddled with divisions. The parliamentary candidate was allegedly not in good terms with one of the councillors who is said to have made a good job of de-campaigning him. However, the UDC campaign manager, Mohammed Khan could neither confirm nor deny reports of divisions. 'I cannot discuss internal party details with the press,' was all he could say.

While the BDP will be looking to increasing the 340 margin in the general elections as quoted in the media, the UDC will be looking to reversing the outcome like it happened in Kgalagadi North in 2009. After the resignation of Obakeng Moumakwa of the BNF from Parliament in 2007 after serving only for two years, a by-election was called.The BDP candidate, Victor Motobake beat Philip Khwae of the BNF by 3,121 votes to 2,971. True to character, the opposition blamed it all on resources. Like in the current case, they threatened to win the seat back in 2009 because BDP resources would be stretched. Indeed the two squared up in the general elections two years later with Khwae outsmarting his opponent by a margin of 150 votes.