Poor governance is the main causative factor of the continent’s underdevelopment and subsequently military coups. Putschists have exploited these democratic deficits to assume the status of saviour and seize power.
However, it must be noted that coup d’états are not a panacea to the inability of democracy to deliver public goods and security to the people but are the very antithesis of a democratic culture.
This piece, therefore seeks to provide key steps that can go a long way to quell coups in a threefold pattern being to disincentivise undemocratic constitutional changes and unconstitutional changes of government while incentivising democratisation and constitutionalism, improving governance to forge stronger social contracts between citizens and the public across Africa and enhancing trust between the military and civilians by strengthening security sector governance. It must be noted that coups erode a country’s democratic gains, advancing a state of democratic regression rather than progress.
If the underlying causes of coups are not addressed deliberately and effectively, coups will continue to occur on the continent. There are some recommendations that I am of a strong view that the culture of military coups in Africa can be reversed.
It is important for the African Union (AU) to strongly uphold its anti-coup norms.
Although AU has prohibited unconstitutional changes of governments, its response to recent coups reflects a waning resolve to enforce anti-coup norms, which is one of its foundational principles complete with sanctions against errant parties. Unless the AU demonstrates resolve on condemning unconstitutional changes of government, it will promote a regional democratic recession. The AU should enforce Article 25 of the African Charter of Democracy, Elections, and Governance by imposing sanctions and referring perpetrators of coups for prosecution without exceptions.
Secondly, regional economic communities should condemn the extension of term limits. African Regional Economic Communities are irresolute on extending presidential term limits.
The East African Community (EAC) Protocol considered imposing term limits in 2011, but members states did not adopt the proposal. ECOWAS parliament adopted a nonbinding resolution to ban the extension of presidential rule beyond two terms in the region. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) have not taken a position on term limits. RECs should promote adopting a continent-wide generally accepted model of presidential mandate limited to two terms.
Thirdly, it is vital for African states to improve governance and oversight institutions. In some countries, the state’s future is not determined by its people but by greedy cartels that feed, defend, and sustain the kleptocratic appetite of geriatric autocrats and their external supporters. African governments should strengthen governance by improving revenue collection, effective planning, policymaking, and implementation, which is vital to advance inclusion at a pace commensurate with social and economic development on the continent. African states should invest in oversight institutions to check executive overreach and uphold the rule of law by facilitating independent judiciaries, people-centric legislatures, vibrant media, independent electoral bodies, freeing human rights defenders, and establishing conflict prevention mechanisms and security sector governance.
Fourth, it is important to have a strong civil society. African citizens should be empowered to reject unconstitutional changes of government as has been the case in Sudan in 2022 , and political leaders should commit to democratic processes anchored on the will and agency of the people as well as implementation of inclusive institutions of governance.
This support should also target African civil society organisations such as women groups, human rights defenders, professional associations (especially those dealing with the rule of law and democratic governance), labour unions, information sharing, and development organisations to make it difficult for undemocratic constitutional changes and unconstitutional changes of government by greedy politicians and the military.
Fifth, there is a need to strengthen civil-military relations.
While coups erode the trust between the military and civil authorities, the politicisation of the police and militarisation of politics corrode the professionalism of the security sector. African governments should strengthen security sector governance to promote civil-military relations and professionalism in the security sector and promote democratic control of the armed forces. Governments should insulate the police from political influence. On their part, political leaders should increase their understanding of the security sector and facilitate periodical, meritorious promotions, transparent recruitment processes, and appropriate training to retain the trust of the military and the civil police.
Sixth, external actors also have a role to play. Regional and international actors have a critical role in condemning or validating coups. The lack of concrete and unified condemnation and the growing willingness to work with juntas and autocrats who cling to power contrary to the people’s wishes encourage the proliferation of coups on the continent.
The international community should disincentivise undemocratic constitutional changes and unconstitutional changes of government, including sanctions and denial of access to sovereign funds. International partners should also support policies, social actors, and oversight institutions that are at the heart of reversing the erosion of democratic principles in African states.
Last but not least, there is a huge need to address the socio–economic exclusion of the youths. The structural conditions essential for the transition of the youths from childhood to adulthood can impel the youth to violence. Poor governance and weak political system, and rivalry for resources drive the youth into grievance, protests and violence.
International partners should assist African states to implement the five fundamental transitions for the well-being of the youth, namely: education, employment, new lifestyle, family formation, and exercising citizens.
In conclusion, the extent to which coups can be deterred in Africa depends on mutual trust between the government and how it best serves its people. A key step is to establish necessary institutional structures and conditions to improve governance to forge stronger social contracts between citizens and their governments to make it difficult for unconstitutional changes of government.
To achieve this, African states should promote more participatory democracy and equitable development, including the youth. The AU, African RECs, the UN, and other international partners must demonstrate resolve in condemning coups and support policies and institutions that help uphold democratic governance. To retain public trust, as an institution, the military should not lean left nor right politically but rather stand upright.
