Rather, they represent the recent resurgence of military coups that have plagued Africa. Some of these coups have occurred within the same country notably, Mali and Burkina Faso.
Some of these coup-affected countries have also experienced military rule for a third of their post-colonial independence. The resurgence of military coups is rooted in a combination of triggers, and proximate and structural factors that require examination.
Typically, official condemnations and membership suspension from both the African Union (AU) and relevant Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have often characterised regional responses. In a similar vein, the African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) also expressed rejection of the coups. Beyond the uncertain outcomes of various responses by regional and international institutions as well as bilateral partners, the latest manifestation of coups, especially in Africa, calls for a deeper reflection.
The in-depth analysis presented in UNDP’s Soldiers and Citizens report sheds some light on the multidimensional factors, which could create coup risks. For analytical convenience, this web of factors could be framed based on trigger, proximate and structural factors, which may often overlap and are closely interrelated. Triggers could typically be events at the domestic, regional, or international levels which could sufficiently shape, drive or become a tipping point for coups. In recent times, the death of a President, and behind-the-scene power struggle intensified by geopolitical considerations may have contributed to triggers. Proximate factors highlight broader challenges in Africa’s political landscape, this inflection point in democracy coincides with a broader questioning of its effectiveness as an optimal form of government. The failure of leaders, even those democratically elected, to meet citizens’ needs and aspirations further exacerbates the situation. When examining the structural and institutional issues that contribute to coup susceptibility, the historical involvement of militaries in politics emerges as a structural factor, alongside institutional deficits in ensuring clear checks and balances. State fragility, characterised by weak governance and political cohesion, also intensifies the vulnerability and risk of coups. These factors, coupled with exclusionary patterns of economic growth and inequality, are alarmingly prevalent in all recent cases of military coups in Africa.
Constitutional manipulation, which seeks to extend term limits, often retrospectively, diminishes the peaceful transfer of power. It creates a dangerous precedent where leaders seek to perpetuate their rule, stifling political competition and reducing the opportunities for fresh ideas and leadership. Furthermore, the lack of clarity in enforcing measures against such constitutional manipulations enables incumbents to exploit legal ambiguities, which undermine the essence of the rule of law and the integrity of democratic institutions.
This then calls for safeguarding term limits and constitutional integrity as essential to preserving democracy’s vitality, ensuring peaceful transitions of power, and fostering a political environment that encourages inclusivity, transparency, and accountability.
Worthy to note is that these military coups in most cases enjoy public support. While citizens may initially cheer for military interventions, their underlying desire is for transformative leadership and effective governance. Understanding these sentiments is pivotal in addressing the challenges to democratic stability in the region. The ephemeral support for coups is therefore a cry for democratic renewal. This should serve as a rallying call for governments to build coup resilience and a shift towards improved governance, and truly inclusive development progress.
Many states have masked exclusionary governance behind a democratic façade, causing citizens’ tolerance for such trends to wane across the continent. Disappointment with democratically elected governments fuels support for non-democratic styles of governance, like military rule, particularly where democracy is perceived as abused or corruption and insecurity prevail. However, it is essential to recognise that citizens overwhelmingly prefer democratic governance, emphasising the need to prioritize democracy and human rights investments.
There is also a huge need to build trust and understanding between civilian leaders and the military is paramount to safeguarding the democratic aspirations and steering it towards a path of sustainable progress and genuine democratic renewal. The history of military governance in coup-affected states also demands a reset in civilian-military relationships. This would require engaging in meaningful civil-military dialogues. By prioritising dialogue, we can bridge the gaps between institutions, promote democratic principles, and reinforce the rule of law. Building trust and understanding between civilian leaders and the military is paramount to safeguarding the region’s democratic aspirations and steering it towards a path of sustainable progress and genuine democratic renewal. Preventive measures offer a sustainable pathway for addressing coup spirals or risks.
However, when coups occur, a robust and timely response is required to navigate through the complex challenges. The recently launched African Facility to Support Inclusive Transition (AFSIT) by the UNDP and the AUC is a timely tool for intervention. It presents an entry point to contribute to complex political transitions including those countries that have recently experienced coups through analysis, assessment, and niche interventions that complement existing programmatic responses.
In conclusion one can safely state that military coups are on the rise in Africa. There is a risk that this pattern of disruptive and unconstitutional transition may reverse development gains and deepen insecurity, especially in the greater and central Sahel regions. Yet, there could be an opportunity to re-set the social contract between the state and citizens as well as promote improved quality of governance that is more accountable and responsive. This will entail promoting democratic processes that are more inclusive of young people, women, and vulnerable groups that are often underrepresented in political processes.
