It has not only shaped the social and political landscape of Sudan but also had ripple effects throughout the region. The conflict has been fuelled by ethnic, religious, political, and economic grievances, and its impact has been felt by millions of Sudanese people, many of whom have been displaced, killed, or left to endure poverty and hunger. Understanding the causes of the Sudan Civil War, its current state, and exploring possible solutions is crucial to bringing lasting peace to this troubled region.
The Sudanese Civil War can be traced back to the country’s colonial history. When Sudan gained independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956, it inherited deep-rooted divisions between the northern and southern regions. The north was predominantly Arab and Muslim, while the south was largely African and Christian or animist. These divisions were further exacerbated by political marginalisation, economic inequality, and a lack of representation for the southern population in the central government. The First Sudanese Civil War (1955-1972) erupted even before independence, as southern rebel groups sought autonomy from the northern-dominated government. The war claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions. The 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement temporarily brought peace by granting the south some degree of autonomy, but underlying tensions remained unresolved.
The Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005) reignited when then-President, Jaafar Nimeiry, reneged on the Addis Ababa Agreement, imposing Sharia law across the country, including in the non-Muslim south. The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), led by John Garang, emerged as a powerful force advocating for the rights of the southern population. This conflict was even more devastating than the first, with over two million people dying, and four million displaced.
The war culminated in the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, which eventually led to the secession of South Sudan in 2011. However, the independence of South Sudan did not end the conflict. Instead, Sudan was left with internal divisions, while South Sudan quickly descended into its own civil war. Moreover, the Darfur conflict in western Sudan, which began in 2003, continued to devastate the region, further complicating the quest for peace.
Current State of the Sudan Civil War
The most recent iteration of the Sudanese conflict began in 2019, following the ousting of long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir. His rule, which lasted from 1989 to 2019, was marked by authoritarianism, widespread corruption, human rights abuses, and economic mismanagement. The 2019 revolution, driven by widespread protests, led to the establishment of a transitional government comprising civilian and military leaders, with the goal of leading the country toward democratic elections. However, the fragile coalition between the civilian and military components of the government quickly fell apart. In October 2021, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan led a military coup, dissolving the transitional government and arresting civilian leaders, including Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. This move sparked a fresh wave of protests across the country, with demonstrators calling for the restoration of civilian rule. The military’s response was brutal, with security forces using live ammunition and tear gas to suppress protests, leading to numerous casualties. At the same time, various armed groups, some of which had been involved in the Darfur conflict or aligned with rebel factions during previous civil wars, have resurfaced. The military’s inability to consolidate control over these regions has led to ongoing violence, particularly in Darfur, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan. Intercommunal violence, spurred by competition for resources and long-standing ethnic rivalries, has also flared up, further complicating the conflict. Sudan is now in the midst of a full-blown humanitarian crisis. The economy, already weakened by decades of mismanagement and international sanctions, has collapsed. Inflation is rampant, food prices have skyrocketed, and millions of people are in need of humanitarian aid.
Several factors have contributed to the continuation and escalation of the Sudan Civil War.
Ethnic and Regional Divisions: Sudan is a highly diverse country, with over 500 ethnic groups and numerous languages. The central government, traditionally dominated by Arab elites from the north, has consistently marginalised other regions and ethnicities, particularly in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile. These regions have long felt neglected by the central government in terms of economic development, political representation, and basic services.
Political instability and weak governance
Since independence, Sudan has experienced numerous coups, authoritarian rule, and failed peace agreements. The lack of stable governance has created a vacuum that various rebel groups and militias have exploited to push their own agendas. The military, which has traditionally wielded significant power, has consistently undermined efforts to establish civilian-led governance.
Economic mismanagement and inequality Sudan’s economy has long been plagued by corruption, mismanagement, and over-reliance on oil revenues. The secession of South Sudan, which took with it the majority of Sudan’s oil reserves, dealt a severe blow to the country’s economy. Coupled with international sanctions, high levels of inflation, and widespread poverty, economic grievances have fuelled discontent across the country.
International Involvement Regional and international actors have played a role in prolonging the conflict. Sudan’s location at the crossroads of the Middle East and Africa has made it a site of geopolitical competition. Neighbouring countries, as well as global powers like the United States, China, and Russia, have provided military support, arms, or diplomatic backing to various factions, further complicating the path to peace.
Despite the complex nature of the Sudan Civil War, there are several possible solutions that could help bring about a lasting peace in the country. These solutions must address the root causes of the conflict while ensuring the inclusion of all stakeholders in the peace process.
The Sudan Civil War is a complex conflict with deep historical roots. While the situation remains dire, there are pathways to peace that can be pursued. By addressing the underlying causes of the conflict, engaging all stakeholders in meaningful negotiations, and committing to long-term economic and political reforms, Sudan has the potential to move towards a more stable and prosperous future. However, this will require sustained effort and cooperation from both Sudanese leaders and the international community.
