Even prior to the outbreak of conflict in Sudan, there were more than 13 million people in Sudan and its seven neighbours who were refugees or internally displaced.
More than 40 million people in these countries are facing acute food insecurity. Resources to assist these populations will now be even further stretched as a result of this conflict.
This reality underscores that each of Sudan’s neighbours is currently or was recently struggling with their own conflict or political instability. It also highlights the compounding effects that each of the region’s crises are having on one another.
According to a study by the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, Sudan had already been hosting over one million refugees from its neighbours, as well as 3.7 million of its own internally displaced (out of a population of 45 million).
Almost 30% of the refugees in Sudan were living in Khartoum and are now trying to evade the fighting there. Most internally displaced people were in camps in Darfur in the west of the country, which has been a renewed focal point of conflict and further displacement. Since the Sudan conflict erupted, UN agencies estimate that an additional 843,000 Sudanese have been internally displaced while roughly 350,000 have fled to Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia and the Central African Republic. These are neighbouring countries that are facing their own stressors as they have faced political upheaval or conflict themselves in recent years.
For a country such as Libya, Sudanese mercenaries and militia fighters have been active on both sides of the conflict that split Libya after 2011. In recent years, many Sudanese fighters have returned to Sudan, contributing to tensions in western Sudan’s Darfur region, where another conflict raged for years, and fighting continued after a deal with some rebel groups in 2020. More than 1,000 people have managed to cross the remote Libya border. Libya has long been a key transit country for migrants and refugees fleeing conflicts and repression from the western Sahel and other parts of Africa. An estimated 667,440 migrants are in Libya, many of whom are subject to abuse by human traffickers. Libya has also been facing an extended political conflict as militias linked to the eastern-based warlord, Khalifa Haftar, have repeatedly tried to undermine and overthrow the UN-backed government in Tripoli. Sudan has also been a departure point and a transit route for asylum seekers travelling to Europe via Libya, where human traffickers have taken advantage of the conflict and political turmoil.
South Sudan will also bears the brunt of this conflict. South Sudan seceded from Sudan in 2011 after a civil war that lasted decades. About 800,000 South Sudanese refugees also live in Sudan. Almost 70,000 South Sudanese refugees are reported to have crossed back into South Sudan, along with some Sudanese and migrants and refugees from other countries. This mass return could put further strains on efforts to supply vital aid to more than two million displaced people in South Sudan who have fled their homes because of the civil strife. For most of its 10 years of existence, South Sudan has been in a civil war. More than a third of the population has been forcibly displaced, more than 2.2 million as internally displaced peoples and 2.3 million as refugees; 7.8 million are facing acute food insecurity including 43,000 facing famine, virtually all of which is attributed to conflict. South Sudan remains in a state of persistent crisis and the conflict in neighbouring Sudan would further put a strain on this fragile state.
As for Chad, some 90,000 Sudanese have already crossed the border into the country and tens of thousands more are expected. Chad already hosts almost 600,000 refugees, 400,000 of which are from Sudan’s Darfur region. In addition, Chad has almost 400,000 internally displaced people due to its own instability. With a long legacy of autocracy under Idriss Déby, Chad has faced perpetual instability. When Déby was killed in battle with an armed opposition group in 2021, the military bypassed the constitutionally mandated succession plan and installed his son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby as president. Violent crackdowns against peaceful protesters calling for a restoration of constitutional order in October 2022 have generated another wave of refugees and internally displaced from this strategically important Sahelian country linking West, North, East and Central Africa.
Last by not least, the conflict will have an adverse impact on Egypt. The histories of Egypt, the most populous Arab state and Sudan are intertwined by politics, trade, culture and shared Nile waters. Cairo has worried about political upheaval to its south since the 2019 uprising that led to Omar al-Bashir’s removal. Sudanese are by far the largest foreign community in Egypt, numbering an estimated four million people, including about 60,000 refugees and asylum seekers. Egypt has been a major route for Sudanese refugees escaping from Khartoum. So far, it has received close to 200,000 people, mostly Sudanese, according to UNHCR. These numbers are expected to increase substantially. Egypt is a major transit and destination point for migrants leaving hardship elsewhere in Africa, hosting nearly nine million economic migrants. Furthermore, Egypt has been engaged in a prolonged dispute with Ethiopia over the management of the Nile River water access stemming from the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), further adding to regional tensions.
It is important to note that were Sudan’s neighbours to get involved on either side of the conflict, the region could become embroiled in the civil war largely because communities in the border areas share a common heritage. Such a scenario would result in a humanitarian catastrophe of magnanimous proportions. The conflict might also affect countries further afield, including the US, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, which have close economic ties with Sudan. It could destabilise the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa and jeopardise US interests in these regions. It could also delay the ratification, by the yet-to-be-formed legislative assembly of the agreement for Russia to build a naval base at Port Sudan.
Finally, the conflict could interfere with trade between Sudan and the Gulf states such the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The international community must stand together and prevent what might turn out to be the worst humanitarian crisis to affect the African continent.
