All indications are that after the disastrous “Hell Nino” of 2023-24, farmers and the nation at large will breathe a sigh of relief in the upcoming cropping season.
Regional meteorologists put their heads together in Harare recently for their annual pre-season gathering where SADC-wide forecasts for the summer cropping season are developed. Each country is now fine-tuning its own forecasts from the broader findings developed at the regional gathering.
“The bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period of October to December 2024 (while) the remainder of the region is likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall during this period of the 2024/25 season including the island states of Comoros and Seychelles,” SADC forecasters said after the Harare meeting.
“The period January to March 2025 is expected to have normal to above normal rainfall for most of the region except for, south-western fringes of South Africa, south-eastern and western most of DRC, north-western Angola, Tanzania, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique and central western tip of Madagascar where normal to below-normal rains are expected including Comoros and Seychelles.”
For Botswana, between October and December, most parts of the country have “increased chances” of normal to above-normal rainfall, with only the extreme southern parts of the country facing the risk of normal to below-normal rainfall.
The SADC forecasters expect that between January and March 2025, all parts of Botswana have an increased chance of receiving normal to above-normal rainfall.
Even the tricky mid-season period, starting in January to the beginning of February, which has been blighted in recent years by prolonged dry spells, should also be wetter this year. SADC forecasters expect that between December and February, Botswana faces increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall.
Earlier this year, Botswana and most of the SADC region faced a record mid-season dry spell of over 30 days, with rainfall levels falling to their lowest in at least 40 years.
Behind the forecasts for better rainfall this year is the La Nina phenomenon, which for Botswana and most parts of SADC is the opposite of El Nino, bringing steady rains and the promise of higher yields.
“The forecasted probabilities (for rain) are broadly consistent with the known influence of La Niña on the regional climate,” SADC researchers said.
Operating in recurring cycles, El Nino and La Nina are both caused by warming or cooling temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, with the more well-known El Nino associated with drought, erratic rainfall, flooding, and high temperatures in southern Africa.
For Botswana and neighbouring countries, La Niña conditions point to higher rainfall amounts, more widely spread across the summer season. La Niña can be remembered in 2019 when Gaborone recorded 244 millimetres of rain in the space of a few weeks between November and December, which was then the wettest start to the rain season in decades.
As optimistic as the outlook appears, United Nation’s agencies are cautioning that the effects of last season’s drought are still very much being felt across the region, with an estimated 75,000 Batswana classified as food insecure as at August 31.
Parliament last month approved P1.3 billion in emergency funding to repay farmers’ seasonal loans, grant subsidies on animal feed and provide supplementary feeding to vulnerable groups, to help with the El Nino-driven drought.
A significant proportion of the funds will be going towards helping food insecure citizens cope until at least the next harvest is ready next year.
“In the face of severe drought conditions in Botswana during the 2023-24 season, the well-being of elderly individuals and children in hotspot areas has emerged as a critical concern,” said assistant Local Government and Rural Development minister, Mabuse Pule in Parliament.
“These populations are particularly vulnerable due to factors such as reduced mobility, limited access to resources due to lack of rains for ploughing and pre-existing health conditions.
“The prolonged drought has exacerbated these challenges, leading to increased food and water insecurity, heightened health risks and deteriorating living conditions.”
While Botswana can largely self-finance its way out of the crisis caused by El Nino, most of the other drought-hit citizens of SADC are banking on a regional appeal for $5.5 billion in humanitarian relief.
At least 61 million are estimated to have been affected by both drought and floods this past summer.
While La Nina promises to boost yields, some experts warn that there may not even be sufficient labour in some countries to till the fields, due to devastation of El Nino.
“Although La Niña conditions – associated with favourable rainfall in the southern Africa region – will become the dominant state in September-November, the long-term impacts of El Niño will persist during the October 2024 to March 2025 main agricultural season,” researchers at the Famine Early Warning System Network said recently.
“Labour demand associated with land preparation and planting is expected to be below normal due to low liquidity and a lack of in-kind payment options among middle and better-off households, who had a significant reduction in revenue from the 2023-24 harvest and typically hire poor households as labourers.
“Most poor households also typically rely on income from casual labour and petty trade, but increased competition and reduced demand due to lower-than-normal liquidity among middle and better-off households will likely also limit households’ earnings.”
For Botswana, however, the upcoming cropping season and forecasts for better rains will provide the first real test of effectiveness for Temo Letlotlo and Thuo Letlotlo, the government-backed inputs and support programmes for arable and pastoral agriculture respectively.
The wetter season will help policymakers review and adjust the two programmes to boost agricultural self-sufficiency and human development outcomes in the rural economy.
