The recent announcement by the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) to withdraw from the UDC, citing discord within the coalition, underscores the magnitude of the fissures within the movement.
Reports of longstanding tensions, particularly between the Botswana National Front (BNF) and the BPF, have further exacerbated the situation prompting the BPF to opt for an independent path in the upcoming 2024 General Election. Criticism has been levelled at the BNF for its perceived dominance within the coalition especially during allocations of constituencies for the 2024 polls.
This signals a need for a shift in approach from the UDC leader, Boko, who is also the president of the BNF. It is now imperative for him to do anything in his power to restore the stability of the coalition and instil confidence amongst disillusioned UDC members as well as neutrals, who are increasingly questioning the UDC's ability to govern effectively.
Encouraging the BPF to reverse its decision is very critical for the survival of the UDC especially that the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) is no longer part of the coalition.
On account of numbers, a UDC that is only made of the BNF, Botswana People’s Party (BPP) and the Alliance for Progressives (AP) is relatively weak. In the main, dealing with queries raised by the BPF requires a deft and nuanced strategy from Boko, one that encompasses diplomatic finesse and strategic compromises to bridge ideological differences and mollify grievances.
The BPF might not necessarily be granted all its wishes.
However, it is only through fostering open dialogue, championing inclusivity, and reaffirming shared objectives, that Boko can turn the UDC into a cohesive political entity capable of winning the elections. Any misstep by Boko risks exacerbating existing tensions and undermining the UDC’s efforts to topple the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) from power.
In addition, Boko must refrain from past confrontational approaches, particularly in the light of previous rifts with the BCP, which ultimately led to the party’s departure from the coalition. When the BCP publicly expressed frustrations about the lack of good governance in the UDC and the 'big brother' mentality displayed by the BNF, Boko and other UDC activists disparaged them. However, some pundits questioned Boko’s approach and accused him of failing to demonstrate astute leadership and commitment to fostering unity within the UDC. This time around, a reconciliatory tone is key as it can help dispel growing perceptions of intolerance and ensure the integrity of the UDC. On the contrary, if Boko and other UDC NEC members do not cut a reconciliatory tone, this might cement the narrative that there is a lot of intolerance and big brother mentality within the coalition.
As a result, this might cost the UDC votes at the impending polls. Timely resolution of internal issues will not only enhance the credibility and viability of the UDC as a unified political force. It will also help the party to begin the preparations for the General Election as early as possible. With many parties within the coalition yet to hold their primaries, the UDC is already racing against the clock to finalise candidate selections and solidify its 2024 General Election strategy. Additionally, if the BPF is not begged to stay, the party’s departure might also mean that there will be urgent need to reconfigure the coalition.
This is something that won’t be easy and will greatly disrupt the UDC’s preparations for the general polls. Commenting on the recent dynamics in the UDC, political analyst and University of Botswana (UB) politics and administrative studies lecturer, Adam Mfundisi, said the untimely withdrawal of the BPF from the coalition might have serious consequences. “The credibility, viability and integrity of the UDC is in tatters and the coalition must redeem itself soonest because the polls are few months from now. Lack of strategic leadership, in part, has contributed to the failure of the UDC to take political power.
The UDC must be responsive to the interests, needs, and priorities of voters who are agitating for the democratisation of the coalition. Let the will of the people prevail in choosing the leadership of the UDC,” he said. He however, doubts that the BPF will change its decision to ditch the coalition. “I do not think anyone at this moment can reverse the decision of the BPF except Khama (former president Ian Khama). The BPF leadership took the decision to quit due to enormous pressure from the grassroots membership who are averse to the UDC leadership and direction,” he said. Khama is a highly admired figure in the BPF and the party patron. Mfundisi said that there is an element of mistrust among parties in the coalition, something that poses a significant challenge to its cohesion and stability. “Coalition politics is a tall order more so pre-election period.
Coalition of political parties is a loose partnership, which requires clear objectives, leadership, motivation, communication, respect, trust and cooperation, and dispute resolution mechanisms. In addition, democratic principles and ideals should bind the contracting partners together. Without adherence to democratic practices, the coalition formation crumbles within a short span of life. In essence, some coalition arrangements fail due to hidden agendas by some political parties in the union. Some parties negotiate in bad faith, hence the protracted battles in a coalition formation,” he said. Political scientist, Professor Zibani Maundeni of the University of Botswana (UB), believes that the withdrawal of the BPF from the UDC sends a negative message to voters, portraying opposition parties as entities that are unable to work together effectively.
“Additionally, it reinforces the perception that coalition governments are inherently unstable and can collapse at any time once voted into power,” he said. Maundeni suggests that the allocation of constituencies may have played a significant role in the BPF's decision to withdraw from the UDC. He described the constituency allocation process as divisive and argued that agreeing on allocation formulas should be done in advance, with principles agreed upon beforehand. He also emphasised the importance of developing and selling the constituency allocation principles collectively during party congresses.
“The problem with local political parties is that they formulate these principles while they have started the allocation process. Discussing and agreeing on a formula for allocation and considering different scenarios as well as ensuring that the process is transparent and fair is very important. By formulating these principles early in the allocation process, parties can avoid divisive disputes and foster greater unity amongst themselves,” he said.
