The southern African region is known for its chivalrous hallmark, a region of countries either known for long-lasting peace, economic prosperity and democratic consolidation. The perk is led by South Africa which holds the stick due to its bulky economic muscle and strong military strength.
For nations like Botswana, South Africa has turned into the ‘bakery’ where it gets its economic bread, with the latter being Botswana’s major trade partner accounting for more than 50% of imports. Despite this producer-consumer relationship that adjoins the duo, Botswana has been consistently biting the hand that feeds it, taking gradual steps to break away from its economic dependence on South Africa, a dice roll that threatens to roll out on a silent economic war between the region.
It goes without saying that President Emmerson Mnangagwa, the late preisdent Hage Geingbok and President of Angola João Lourenço are Masisi’s top pals in the region, a team of regional cronies that have rallied behind Masisi’s regional aspirations that are becoming less conspicuous day by day.
To lay it even barer, Masisi has expressed in action the desire to break away from over-reliance on South Africa as a source of most of its imports. In economics it makes great sense why any nation would pursue this as an economic goal, it makes market sense to desire economic liberation but in politics, the argument will not hold as it does in economics.
When a nation plays second fiddle economically to the other, it places it in the political red of being dominated by the hand that feeds it. Consequently, trade often skews in favour of the economically stronger and that’s why the pure economic decision of Botswana to break away from South Africa turns into a dicey move when political lens are worn.
Masisi has referred to his cronies as his ‘brothers’ often times exchanging pleasantries and trade amenities to soothe their undying commitment to their friendship. There is certainly no harm in friendship at diplomatic level but the alarm lights go off when a crack appears in the sands of the region and interests begin to clash over how regional matters should be handled.
Remember, when Ukraine tried to break away from economic ties with Russia? The latter felt threatened and chose a bizarre response and ended up invading Ukraine.
To suggest that the Botswana- South Africa economic tension will culminate into a war would be blowing things out of proportion but there is a political threat that Botswana poses to South Africa should it continue to achieve economic independence and rise to become a regional investment hub of choice in the region.
President Masisi has tactically been establishing trade routes away from Pretoria, with the earliest one being the agreement with Namibia to use Walvis Bay dry port as a landing for trade products destined for Botswana shores.
The shifting of eyes to Namibia as opposed to the Durban port which has been the port used by Botswana as a conduit for goods into Botswana serves both the interests of Namibia to be a logistical hub of the region and Botswana’s growing desire for economic independence.
The President has also been continually forging strong ties with the nation of Zimbabwe as well. The relationship between Mnangagwa and Masisi has been very strong, with the latest being an expressed desire for the use of Identity cards as a means of identification at borders, a development that has raffled feathers locally.
Botswana’s economy is stronger than that of Zimbabwe by far, but the Masisi`s eagerness to rope in Zimbabwe as a close ally has been an eyebrow-raising development. At one point while addressing the United Nations Masisi veered off from his speech and started talking about how sanctions against Zimbabwe must be lifted and how inhuman the sanctions were.
It’s obvious that the Zimbabwean crisis has garnered little pity from SADC and its leaders, especially from South Africa which rubs shoulders with the G7 and BRICS countries much often. Masisi has taken it upon himself to carry Zimbabwe on his shoulders in his quest to consolidate the region.
South Africa has been accused of being a sleeping giant by many analysts often keeping quiet when their stick is needed the most as a regional leader. Mozambique suffered insurgency for almost three years with South Africa indecisive about the right intervention till nations like Rwanda took a bold military step before the intervention of South Africa through SADC.
Last year during an economic roundtable, President Masisi augmented the tone higher when he expressed the need for economic autonomy, particularly in the power sector, expressing what critics across the border quickly deemed as an unpopular view
“Clearly, reliance on power imports to meet our increasing electricity requirements is no longer an option as this poses a huge risk to our economy,” Masisi said.
After expressing his views on national interest during the launch of the Jindal Mmamabule Power Station, Masisi’s sentiments were emphatically made clear during a Botswana-SA business round table discussion last year. Acknowledging the skewed trade balance, he called for a change in trade rules. A comprehensive view of government policies reveals Botswana’s reluctance to rely solely on SA’s economic largesse.
As is, Morupule B has a base load capacity of 600MW but is presently generating well below that as it undergoes an overhaul. Botswana’s peak energy demand, which occurs during winter, is more than 700MW. The difference is sourced through imports from the bilateral import agreements with SA’s Eskom, other regional utilities, and purchases from the Southern African Power Pool.
In silos, the statements do not echo much trade splinter weight. However, taking into account other government trade policies, it becomes increasingly visible that Botswana is no longer willing to survive on the crumbs that fall off SA’s economic table.
In the agricultural sector, the Masisi-led government in 2022 instituted a ban on 16 types of vegetables enforced to bolster the local horticulture industry, which SA says has had a negative bearing on its farmers. The stiff competition from South African produce had rendered the local market impenetrable for local farmers. As of August 2023, Statistics Botswana valued vegetable imports at over P81 million, with over 60% coming from SA.
Government’s decision late last year to extend the embargo and expand the list of 16 vegetables, sent more pain to South Africa where large-scale farmers had been hoping to resume their traditional dominance of the local sector. The vegetable ban has stirred discontent in SA, with farmers expressing dismay and threatening a potential trade war. Whether they are communicating via back channels or publicly, Masisi and Ramaphosa have not engaged on the horticultural standoff.
The high stakes act gamble becomes riskier when considering that Masisi`s close allies don’t have much to offer Botswana like South Africa. Independence remains a farfetched dream for the land locked country
