The Khama family is currently spooked by the regime of President Mokgweetsi Masisi to the point that some of them including the former president are in self-imposed exile in South Africa (SA).
The Botswana government has also recently said in court where Ian was supposed to appear but did not do so since criminal charges were levelled against him that it will apply for him to be extradited from SA to face a battery of criminal offences back home. In this whole jittery situation, two prominent protagonists who were once bosom political allies, Ian and Masisi, feature prominently. Ian, his younger brother who is a legislator, Tshekedi Khama and their other family members are currently living in South Africa (SA) because they say that they fear being persecuted by the Masisi government.
The Khama family is of the view that Masisi is using State agencies especially the Directorate of Intelligence and Security (DIS) to harass them following Ian’s bitter fallout with his anointed successor, Masisi.
The government and Masisi have on countless occasions denied accusations that the criminal charges that are faced by Khama and his twin brothers are a political witch-hunt.
The government and Masisi have also stated that no citizen of Botswana or foreigner in the country is above the country’s Constitution. Recently, the Khama family was mourning the death of their elder sister Jacqueline Khama who was buried in Serowe last Friday.
Before the funeral, Ian had publicly stated that he would not attend Jacqueline’s funeral because of criminal charges hanging over his head. Ian has also told the media in SA that he will not come to Botswana unless there is regime change.
He has also recently stated that he is contemplating to apply for asylum in SA for the reasons stated above.
It is a well-known fact that Ian attracts large crowds whenever he is addressing political rallies across Botswana and also commands a lot of respect. Henceforth, there is a belief that he was mainly responsible for dislodging the BDP - a party that his father, the late former president Seretse Khama co-founded - in its stronghold of the Central District. Ian is also partly credited for the wins by some UDC legislators, Taolo Lucas and Dr Kesitegile Gobotswang, in Bobirwa and Sefhare-Ramokgonami constituencies respectively.
The two UDC legislators have tried in vain for many times to win parliamentary seats. Many will remember how Ian relentlessly went to the Bobirwa and Sefhare-Ramokgonami to de-campaign Shaw Kgathi and Dorcas Makgato respectively in the campaign trail to the 2019 general elections until they lost the general elections to Lucas and Gobotswang. Asked how the BPF might perform during the 2024 general election if all things remain constant (BPF not joining the UDC and Ian being in South Africa during the campaign trail for the 2024 general election), a political scientist from UB, Zibani Maundeni, is of the view that Ian’s absence will likely have far reaching implications for the BPF.
Says Maundeni: “It’s common knowledge that former president Ian Khama is in self-exile in South Africa. He is also the patron of the BPF. His absence from Botswana and his likely absence during the 2024 general elections means that he can’t lead campaigns for his party.” Professor Maundeni also said the suspension of BPF president Biggie Butale will also compound the woes of the BPF. “The BPF is almost rudderless and is likely to perform poorly in the 2024 general election. Whether aggrieved Bangwato tribesmen will give it a sympathy vote big enough to win parliamentary seats remains to be seen,” opines Maundeni. Giving an example, Maundeni said the Bakgatla tribesmen voted the BDP in 2019 while their Kgosi Kgafela Kgafela II is in self-exile in South Africa. “Whether history repeats itself with the Bangwato remains an open question.
The dice could go either way depending on the circumstances obtaining on the ground at the time of the 2024 general election,” Maundeni posits. Another UB political observer, Adam Mfundisi, said the issue of Ian’s absence in the campaign trail leading to the 2024 general election is a million dollar question. “Ian’s absence or presence has different implications and/or outcomes. He is an enigma able to command a large following across the country. Some cynical people assume Khama only enjoys massive support in Bangwato heartland but are delusional because Khama is a statesman who possesses charisma that appeals to the hearts and minds of the people including voters across Botswana. He has, of course, ancestry strength derived from the Khama dynasty.
Ian’s father was the founding father of the Botswana who was held in high esteem by most people within and outside the country,” says Mfundisi. Khama, Mfundisi noted, is a former army commander who is highly decorated in military circles. “Ian, together with the late Mompati Merafhe, formed the Botswana Defence Force (BDF) from the remnants of the Police Mobile Unit transforming it to a professional military revered by many in the African continent and beyond.
He was poached by the moribund BDP when it faced imminent defeat by the opposition parties. Ian has stature as both a renowned military man and the first son of the first president of Botswana and was seen as the silver bullet to ward off serious challenge from the opposition forces. All in all, he helped the BDP to win subsequent elections until his retirement from the highest political office in 2018,” Mfundisi opines. Mfundisi added: “On the other side, it can be argued that Ian carries political pathologies from the his previous position in the BDP and government. Ian was viewed by some as a dictator who governed the country through autocratic means.
He is currently facing criminal prosecution for gun related offences. In addition, he is alleged to have presided over rampant corruption, mismanagement, nepotism and other serious misdemeanours. Some people have argued that the 2019 general election were a referendum on Ian.
He can bring votes as well as lose votes for those aligned to him.” Some people have argued that the UDC lost the elections due to its association with Ian particularly in the southern part of the country including Gaborone, Mfundisi continued.
“Whether these assumptions are true or false is debatable. The BPF without Ian will be limping towards the 2024 general election. Ian is the Godfather of the BPF appealing to the voters in the Bangwato areas and beyond. I posit that he will still be an asset for the BPF from outside the country. Technological revolution will be used as an instrument to garner support through the media platforms including social media. But his absence will affect the impact of the BPF if it does not join the UDC or any other formation going forward,” said Mfundisi. The spokesperson of the BPF has not responded to a questionnaire that was sent to him more than a month ago.
