The world shakes at its shoes as poll dates draw closer and closer like the dreaded sound of the hangman’s footsteps echoing in the ears of a felon whose fate is the gallows. In 2024, it is not just about who will emerge victorious, it is about the authenticity of the results, about who will control the narrative that will influence voters’ minds. It is also about the war in Gaza and Ukraine, the freedom of Africa from neo-colonialism and a colossal election year amid so much uncertainty.
This year’s fret emanates from the thought of a Donald Trump return to the White House and what that means for the war in Gaza and Ukraine, it is the thought of a coalition government in South Africa with the ruling Africa National Congress losing the majority to an opposition with two different ideas about what needs to change, alongside a plausible change of government in India which may tip the scales of global peace.
The likely ramifications transcend national poll concerns but spill on to place global development prospects on a balance, a swing in poll results for major economies could reverse global progress thus far and even threaten to destabilise global peace and security, reason enough to keep voters, investors and citizens up at night.
South AfricaThe dense fog clouding South Africa’s political landscape is too great a deal to try and pass by in the assessment of leading risky election outcomes in the global sphere. The elections which are set for May are hinted to be the first plausible elections where the governing ANC may lose the majority for the first time since party stalwart Nelson Mandela garnered unprecedented Presidential victory in 1994.
As the political party credited for leading the liberation struggle against the apartheid regime, the ANC has since 1994 enjoyed nearly unshakeable hegemony. In 1994, South Africans tired of the apartheid government stood for hours in queues that snaked across the land to cast their ballots and usher in a new regime. Thirty years on, the picture is quite different.
Public polls show that South Africans are viewing the upcoming election as an opportunity to address the many issues they face daily. It is a long list, and by no means surprising: load-shedding; corrupt politicians; poor service delivery; a buckling health-care system; water crises; crime, including gender-based violence; poor education; unemployment; the high cost of living, including the price of food; the high cost of fuel; and debt.
The ANC’s reputation has in the past decade endured a great dent in its reputation, tarnished by a stream of corruption allegations, especially under the leadership of former president Jacob Zuma from 2009 to 2018. Rampant graft over that period is estimated to have cost billions of dollars and South Africa held a four-year enquiry in an attempt to uncover the extent of the corruption.
Most recently, an electricity crisis tied to corruption and mismanagement at the state-run national power supplier, Eskom has led to nationwide daily rolling blackouts. It has been disastrous for businesses and the mood of South Africans.
All these factors culminate to threaten the return of ANC as the majority governing party, with recent findings suggesting the country “will almost certainly” have a coalition government after the vote on May 29, with the ANC losing ground to a new party founded by Zuma and the main opposition the Democratic Alliance (DA), according to the survey by the Brenthurst Foundation and the SABI Strategy Group. For Botswana, this represents a gross risk to policy shift as trade patterns enjoyed under the ANC’s rule may likely tilt to the east. For African countries, an unsteady political landscape in Africa’s second-largest economy threatens the supply chain linkages as South Africa is a leading source of raw materials used in African industries. For the Southern African region, South Africa controls the bulk of economic activity as the leading contributor to Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenue earnings. Policy changes in Pretoria formed from a coalition government threaten the economic stability of the region, especially for countries like Botswana which wholly depend on SA for supplies.
For the world, South Africa has asserted itself as a gateway to Africa due to the country’s strong economic muscle. A politically risky South Africa is likely to jeopardise international investment agreements such as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which are meant to strengthen African exports to America.
Additionally a collation government between leading opposition parties, DA and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), may likely brew instability in policymaking as the two represent two far extreme divides of economic policy. The EFF, for example, has land expropriation as a leading policy which the DA thinks of as extremist thereby threatening a governing majority that may birth an unstable government.
America The United States of America is the world’s biggest economy wields hegemonic power as a unipolar in the global political landscape. It is often said that when America sneezes the whole world catches a cold and this time both the American economy and political landscape have been suffering from a severe cold that is expected to get worse in this election year.
The face-off of this year’s election has been confirmed to be between President-elect Joe Biden alongside his rival, Trump. This year’s elections will be swayed by decisions surrounding the ongoing two hot wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
These wars are notorious for the skyrocketing inflation in the world with consumers experiencing soaring high prices as food, petroleum prices skyrocketed beyond normal levels with policy choices of the upcoming government set to determine the pattern of inflation going into other quarters. Economically, the Biden administration has made a few jabs of its arresting unemployment and a steady and rewarding stock market.
That should bode well but the key question is whether enough Americans think the economy is strong under Biden, think it is working for them, or think Trump was a safer pair of hands.
Different polls have thus far shown that many do prefer Trump. Cost-of-living concerns dominate such surveys. Inflation remains a worry. For Biden, Republican threats to social security and Medicare might help offset such worries.
Policy frameworks between Republicans and Democrats this year will also hinge on decisions around souring US-China relations which have deteriorated and spilled over to tensions in the Asia Pacific region. Other pertinent issues include a growing number of migrants who trying to get to the US through a border which seems more porous by the day.
The prospect of Republican Donald Trump returning to office, with his America First foreign policy agenda, adds more uncertainty to an already tumultuous picture. Some countries look forward to his return. But many of America’s allies are more fearful about the possible comeback of an unorthodox president they found hard to deal with the first time around.
India India has asserted itself as a major broker of global power in a fragmenting world between the East and West. India’s role as a balance between the qualms of both the US and China has asserted the nations’ imperative role as a maintainer of peace and a giant in the global sphere.
The good news for India is that during the 15 years preceding COVID-19, the country sustained a real GDP growth rate of eight percent compared with less than two percent for the U.S. Analysts have proved that if India can keep this up for the next two decades and grow five percent a year thereafter while the U.S. maintains its growth rate of two percent it may overtake the US as a leading economy.
As one of the world’s largest markets with a population spanning over 1.4 billion people, elections in the world’s diverse market are set to determine the outflow and inflow of trade policies in the global arena. India’s elections will also determine if India continues to broker peace between the ever-conflicted East and West bloc of the world. The Indian election will determine whether peace will continue between China and America.
The 2024 elections are dynamic, slippery and tough to predict, it’s the economy that’s at stake, its policies that regard how trade is done that are at stake, its regional peace and for countries like Botswana, it will be an election year to monitor with hawk eye interest.
