The political future of the UDC and BCP is now in tatters because of the sustained onslaught against each other from either side. This, analysts opine, will imperil the UDC and BCP’s chances of removing from power the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), a political juggernaut that has ruled the country since the first general elections in 1965. T
he UDC and BCP are putting their legacies before the voters on the line. This is despite what some political observers say are “political own goals” by the BDP which the major opposition parties in Botswana are failing to capitalise on. The analysts add that only a credible and united opposition in Botswana can hand the BDP its first electoral defeat at the polls. The UDC has been soundly defeating the BDP in most by-elections which is a sign that if the opposition is united, everything is possible including the removal of the BDP from power. However, if history is anything to go by, although the BDP has been losing most by-elections to the opposition, it performs much better during the general elections. University of Botswana (UB) political analyst, Adam Mfundisi said: “My considered view is that the UDC as it is constituted was destined to fail.
The UDC is a coalition of political parties and not a coalition political party. Therefore, the constitution of the UDC should have reflected the diversity, equity and inclusivity in its decision-making process. In its inception, the dominant political formation was the BNF which has in the course of time become a weakling in the UDC. And the UDC constitution then reflected the near monopoly of the BNF in the UDC coalition.” Mfundisi added: “During the 2019 general elections, notwithstanding numerous allegations of electoral fraud and rigging, the BNF of the UDC performed dismally. On the contrary, the BCP of the UDC which in the 2014 polls performed poorly but in the 2019 general elections excelled in the polls. Members of Parliament (MPs) of the BCP of the UDC were in the majority within the coalition. The leader of the BCP triumphed in the 2019 general elections but that of the BNF lost his parliamentary seat in Gaborone Bonnington constituency. This complicated the political arithmetic and ramifications.”
Following that, the BCP president became the Leader of Opposition (LoO) in Parliament and consequently did a sterling job in his position, says Mfundisi. “This amongst other host of issues sent shockwaves to the UDC leadership. Now the LoO and leader of the BCP became a threat to the UDC leadership. His political pedigree was translated by some as a serious challenge to the president of the UDC who is also the president of the BNF. The president of the BCP who hitherto was the vice president (VP) in the UDC began a crusade on constitutional reforms within the UDC formation. He and other leaders called for constitutionalism (Rule of Law), democratisation, and good governance. They wanted the UDC to promote, amongst others, transparency, accountability, and ethical leadership,” Mfundisi underscored.
These moves, Mfundisi added, were interpreted as a threat and a direct challenge to the UDC leadership dominated by the BNF. “This culminated in the suspension of the leader of the BCP who doubled as the LoO in Parliament together with the secretary-general (SG) of the BCP. Furthermore, this was followed by four renegade MPs aligned to the BCP ganging up with BNF aligned MPs to remove the LoO. And eventually the four were suspended and expelled from the ranks of the BCP. Only one MP Kenny Kapinga retraced his steps and was welcome into the BCP,” Mfundisi explains. Asked about how developments between the UDC and BCP will affect Botswana’s political climate, Mfundisi said: “The political warfare taking place within the UDC will affect the political developments in Botswana as well as political coalitions. Personally, I subscribe to the view that what we in Botswana need political contestations premised on the principles of a free, fair, credible, democratic and verifiable electoral process. BCP and BNF of the UDC relationship has broken down irreparably and therefore a bitter separation will ensue. The masses should be provided with durable political alternatives based on solid foundations not political opportunism. Populism is an affront to our democratic development. Coalitions should not be formed for political expediency but for development.”
According to Mfundisi, a coalition of many political parties is destined to fail because of various interests, needs, aspirations and priorities. “It requires effective leadership which has been absent in our political space. The BDP will not be a direct beneficiary of the UDC woes but the people of Botswana. As it stands, we are likely to have a new coalition of political parties which is possibly going to comprise the Alliance for Progressives (AP), Botswana Labour Party (BLP) and BCP. A three-horse political race is a welcome development provided the three political formations are strong and offer choice to the voters,” Mfundisi opined.
He added: “The BDP currently has its own intra and inter-party problems. In addition, the BDP government is beset with socio-economic and political challenges including high unemployment, poverty, inequity, criminality, and poor leadership. The masses have lost confidence and trust in the President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s regime which is afflicted by the corruption pandemic. All in all, the elections are two years from now and political parties have ample time to re-engineer themselves.”
