Botswana is set to be amongst the 70 countries holding elections this year.
However, it will not be counted amongst the 43 nations considered to conduct fully free and fair elections, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit's report published on February 15, 2024, classifying Botswana as a flawed democracy.
The annual Economist Democracy Index, established in 2006, grades 167 countries on a scale of 10 based on their democratic practices, election fairness, and protection of civil liberties. It categorises them as full democracies, flawed democracies, hybrid regimes, or authoritarian regimes. The recent report indicates that less than eight percent of the world’s population resides in full democracies, with 39.4% under authoritarian rule, an increase from 36.9% in 2022.
In the latest report, Norway leads the list as a fully-fledged democracy for the 14th consecutive year. The Nordic countries dominate the top 10, with Greece named 'Country of the Year' for returning to full democracy “after successful parliamentary, regional and political party elections last year”.
Once again, Mauritius leads Sub-Saharan Africa, ranking 20th globally with a score of 8.1, outperforming highly industrialised countries like the United States, Japan, and Spain.
With Donald Trump’s imprint, the inclusion of the US is not surprising. The country has been in the flawed democracy category since 2017. And veteran US journalist Dan Rather could not help wondering: “How has a sexual assaulter, a convicted fraudster, an alleged insurrectionist, a hoarder of classified documents, and an election denier all but sworn up the Republican nomination for president?”
Even more embarrassing, only six African countries fall into the flawed democracy category: Botswana (rank: 33, score: 7.73), Cape Verde (rank: 35, score: 7.7), South Africa (rank: 47, score: 7.05), Namibia (rank: 57, score: 6.52), and Ghana (rank: 65, score: 6.3). Four other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, including Madagascar, Tanzania, Zambia, and Malawi, fall into the hybrid regime category.
Countries like Benin, Uganda, The Gambia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Kenya, Senegal, and Liberia in Sub-Saharan Africa also fall into this category.
Around 30 African countries are in the Authoritarian Regime category, with dubious SADC countries such as Angola (rank: 107, score: 4.18), Mozambique (rank: 113, score: 3.51), Zimbabwe (rank: 122, score: 3.04), Eswatini (rank: 132, score: 2.78), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (rank: 160, score: 1.68).
Even the often unflatteringly praised and the Western media’s blue-eyed boy Paul Kagame’s Rwanda has rightly been classified as an authoritarian regime it is. At a rank of 117 and a score of 3.3, Rwanda beats only Eswatini, Zimbabwe, and the DRC.
Despite once playing in the same league as Mauritius during the Sir Ketumile Masire and Festus Mogae era, or the proverbial 'di ya thoteng', Botswana has seen a gradual erosion of its democratic credentials since Mogae's tenure.
Former presidents Sir Seretse Khama, Sir Ketumile, and Mogae, as well as the nation at large, did not aspire for anything less.
Under Ian Khama's leadership, Botswana has experienced a decline in various global indices, including Transparency International and the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). The Global State of Democracy 2023 report by International IDEA reveals that Botswana suffered the fifth-largest decline in its ranking for rights in 2022, with a 22-place drop in the ranking for the participatory system. “In 2022, the largest falls were in Sri Lanka (88), Suriname (57), Jordan (100), Haiti (160), Botswana (64), Bhutan (63), Mali (120), El Salvador (137) and Brazil (84). Romania (51) and Suriname (57) fell out of the top 50 ranking in Rights between 2021 and 2022,” states the report. Concerns are now rising that the country may witness serious setbacks in credible elections.
The recent electoral benchmarking trip to one of the most repressive regimes conducted last week is not inspiring confidence. According to the EIU report, Zimbabwe, with its ranking of 127 and a score of 3.04, falls into the authoritarian regime category. President Mokgweetsi Masisi's close association with Zimbabwean autocrat Emmerson Mnangagwa has unsettled many in Botswana. In recent months, Masisi has advocated openly for an arrangement allowing nationals of Botswana and Zimbabwe to use their national identity cards (Omang) to cross borders, similar to Namibia. Zimbabweans have also called for the establishment of a one-stop border post at Ramokgwebana/Plumtree. However, Batswana have generally expressed displeasure with the use of national identity cards with Zimbabwe, arguing that the neighbouring country's illegal immigrants are negatively impacting Botswana's socio-economic and political development. Masisi, suspiciously, has fervently defended the use of Omang at borders, raising concerns among opposition parties that this could be exploited to 'illegally' manipulate the 2024 General Election.
Last week's seemingly clandestine visit by Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) officials to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has only intensified such suspicions. The IEC's efforts to explain the visit as anything but benchmarking have not helped their case. "Botswana’s IEC is currently in Zimbabwe to tap into the country’s expertise following the holding of successful elections last year," The Herald, the state-owned newspaper, reported during the IEC visit to Zimbabwe.
ZEC’s chief electoral officer, Utloile Silangwana, is quoted as saying the benchmarking visit was an endorsement of Zimbabwe’s electoral processes.
However, the August 23-24, 2023 Zimbabwe elections, like many before, were marred by violence and runaway rigging. Even the SADC Electoral Mission (SOME), uncharacteristically joined other independent observers in calling out ZANU-PF shenanigans. The poll was condemned by the African Union, the United Nations secretary-general, the European Union, the Commonwealth, the Carter Centre, and many others. The SOEM preliminary report specifically identified problem areas covering delimitation of constituencies, the voters’ roll, late opening of polling stations in opposition strongholds, freedom of assembly, freedom of expression, nomination of candidates and nomination fees, and participation of women.
The SOEM report noted widespread gerrymandering using an old law (Act) instead of the current 2013 Act to the disadvantage of the opposition. Opposition contestants were denied the voter’s roll under the pretext of "protecting the privacy" of their personal information under the Cyber and Data Protection Act, in violation of the Electoral Act. Zimbabwe High Court Judge Never Katiyo dismissed as "not urgent" a plea by the opposition's Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) to see the final voter’s roll and polling stations. Zimbabwe police abused opposition parties under the notorious Maintenance of Peace and Order Act (MOPA), making it nearly impossible for them to hold rallies and marches.
Then there is a draconian piece of legislation that impinges on freedom of expression.
The Patriotic Act signed by Mnangagwa two months before the elections was found by SADC observers to be "incompatible with the spirit of Section 61 (1) of the Zimbabwe Constitution and SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections". The report expressed concern over barring some opposition candidates from contesting the election and prohibitively high nomination fees that rose from P13,304 to P266,084 for a presidential candidate and from P665 to P13,304 for a parliamentary candidate. There was also a shadowy group, Forever Associates Zimbabwe (FAZ), likened to a ruling party vigilante group, prompting former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, head of the African Union election observer mission, to remark that "FAZ activities should be declared criminal offences".
University of Botswana (UB) political scientist, Professor Zibani Maundeni conceded in an interview:"Yes, we should be worried by such declining trends in our democracy indexes. Other indexes such as World Justice Project report, Freedom in the World report, Ibrahim index report, all point to a deteriorating situation, not only for Botswana, but for the rest of Africa." He noted that this means Africa is on reverse gear when it comes to promoting democracy, rule of law, safety and human rights. His conclusion is that, "It's worrying."
