At around 61, he is likely to be the youngest member of a club where an overwhelming majority is either ailing, ageing or haunted by their successors. Kenya has had two living ex-presidents afflicted by the first two inconveniences only.
The hope is that Kenyatta does not become the first to suffer the third. As things stand, he does not enjoy the unassailable gerontocratic or geriatric advantages of his now departed predecessors, Mwai Kibaki and Daniel arap Moi.
The two ex-Kenyan presidents left power at advanced ages – with Kibaki suffering very poor health in retirement - so they never posed threats to their successors.
But, Kenyatta is still young, healthy and will remain politically engaged therefore, posing a threat to his successor. Thus, chances of him ending up in the haunted league of ex-heads of state in Africa are comparatively very high.
If in doubt, he only needs to look at what has happened to former Botswana president, Lt Gen (rtd) Ian Khama with whom he shares a number of things. Both are sons of founding presidents. Both became the fourth presidents of their countries, with their terms ending when they are still in their early 60s, a young age bracket in African presidential politics.
Both come from families which once bestrode the socio-economic and political affairs of their countries with unmatched impunity. Both are apolitical professionals handpicked and thrust into political leadership as projects of a presidential godfather.
Their entry into politics was part of carefully stage-managed presidential succession plots. Both have been accused of seeking to install puppets as successors so that they rule by proxy after they retire from power.
If Raila Odinga becomes Kenya’s fifth president, Kenyatta, like Khama would have been succeeded by a close ally and chosen heir. For Kenyatta, the hope is that the similarities end there.
He will definitely not wish to suffer the fate of the once omnipotent Khama who has been reduced to a haunted and helpless figure by President Mokgweetsi Masisi, his handpicked successor-turned tormentor.
The former Botswana president is now languishing in exile in neighbouring South Africa where he fled to last year in fear that he was about to be arrested and slapped with criminal charges.
He is a deeply troubled soul and a 'fugitive' from justice following his long running fallout with Masisi. The Masisi government has not spared even members of his family and close allies. It has been a sensational fall for a man once deemed a demigod and a family, which had dominated Botswana with little opposition for decades.
From what is happening to Khama, Kenyatta must know there is no guarantee that handing over power to a hand-picked successor and close ally is a sure bet for a blissful life in retirement.
Besides Botswana, examples from Angola and Cameroon indicate that things can become very nasty for a retired leader after handing over power to an ally, no matter how close the relationship was before the transition.
In Angola, the retired Jose Eduardo dos Santos returned home last September after a 30-month exile in Europe following an anti-corruption onslaught against his former allies and members of his family.
His influential children, Jose Filomeno and Isabel were sacked from their lucrative positions in state agencies as soon as he handed over power to his former deputy, Joao Lourenco. Jose Filomeno was slapped with a five-year jail sentence last year while the property and bank accounts of Isabel, at one time reputed to be Africa’s wealthiest woman have been frozen.
Reports in April this year by Angola’s Attorney General, Helder Pitta Groz that the country has recovered part of the $100 billion-plus looted under Dos Santos may be a source of worry for the former head of state. In Cameroon, the late Ahmadou Ahidjo, Cameroon’s respected founding father fled to exile in 1984 after the lackluster protégé he installed in power turned against him.
At only 58 years, Ahidjo surprised everybody by quitting in 1982 and handing over power to his Prime Minister, Paul Biya at a time when African presidents ruled for life.
Within two years, Ahidjo fled to exile and was slapped with a death sentence in absentia on accusations he had attempted a coup against Biya. The examples from Botswana, Angola and Cameroon should be a warning to Kenyatta that handing over power to a preferred successor is no guarantee of a peaceful life for a retired African leader.
Dr Wene Owino is a former Mmegi editor and a development expert
